Use of expert opinion elicitation to quantify the internal erosion process in dams
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Published:2004
A. J. Brown, W. P. Aspinall, 2004. "Use of expert opinion elicitation to quantify the internal erosion process in dams", Long-term benefits and performance of dams: Proceedings of the 13th Conference of the British Dam Society and the ICOLD European Club meeting held at the University of Kent, Canterbury, UK from 22 to 26 June 2004., Henry Hewlett
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Expert Opinion Elicitation is a generic term for a number of similar techniques that have been developed to provide quantitative estimates of parameters which cannot readily be quantified through direct measurement or other sampling techniques. The initial motivation for their development was the 1986 Challenger Shuttle disaster in the space industry, and subsequent applications have spread into many other areas: the techniques have been widely used in the nuclear industry, for instance. One particular procedure consists of obtaining responses to a set of quantitative questions from a number of experts, including the range of uncertainty in each response, and then combining these through a weighting procedure to obtain a pooled best estimate of the parameters of interest.
Introduction
Expert Judgment and Elicitation of Expert Opinions
Approach Used on this Project
Parameters Selected for Quantification
Results of Elicitation
Assessment of Results: Accuracy and Prediction
Debatable Issues
Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
