Chapter 15: Does the “Mismatch Hypothesis” Apply to Hispanic Students at Selective Colleges?

The Latino population in the United States is the nation’s largest minority group (Fry, 2010a), and it is growing rapidly. From a total of 48 million, or 16% of the U.S. population, in 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010), this population is projected to increase to 133 million, or 30% of the total population, by 2050 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2008). Owing partly to this rapid population growth, Latinos (along with Asian and Pacific Islanders) have had the highest rates of undergraduate enrollment growth in recent decades. Latinos’ share of total enrollment grew from 4% in 1976 to 13% in 2008 (Aud, Fox, & Kewal Ramani, 2010), and it is projected to keep on rising at least through 2018 (Hussar & Bailey, 2009). The increase in freshman enrollment of Latinos at postsecondary institutions in the first year of the recession played a significant role in the recession-era boom in the size of freshman classes. From 2007 to 2008, enrollment of Latinos increased by 15% compared to 3% for Whites (Fry, 2010b).