Chapter 12: Hydrological Modelling and Digital Technology for Assessing Water Volume Dynamics in Peru’s Palcacocha Lagoon

The analysis of the flow in the lagoons is crucial to unravel the hydrological, ecological and climatic mechanisms that shape these natural environments. Lagoons are vibrant ecosystems that adapt to a symphony of natural and human elements, such as rainfall, evaporation, infiltration, soil management and climatic metamorphosis. The objective was to identify the factors that determine the behaviour of the volume of water in the Palcacocha lagoon, located in the city of Huaraz – Áncash, during the year 2020. The population studied corresponded to the total volume of water in the lagoon, which for that year amounted to 17,100,345 m³. The study, of applied type and non-experimental longitudinal design, used a hydrological model based on multiple logistic regression using the progressive Wald selection method. It was concluded that the various climatic factors, as well as those specific to the particular characteristics of the lagoon, have a highly significant impact on the behaviour and evolution of the volume of water, which strongly validates their influence on this process. In the absence of adequate control over these environmental and climatic factors, the volume of water could increase in an uncontrolled and exponential manner, generating an imminent risk of overflow that could catastrophically affect both the buildings and the resident population in the areas of Huaraz and Independencia, which have been identified as areas of very high and high level of danger in the department of Áncash.