2: Commodity Price Forecasting

I received my first real exposure to commodity markets in the early 1970s while engaged on a feasibility study and business plan for the establishment of Air Mauritius. At the time, round trip economy airfares between Mauritius and France and the UK, to which many Mauritians had emigrated, were over $1,000, a figure totally unaffordable for family travel at the income levels that prevailed then. Charter flights could be organised for around $250, but these were legal only if they were so-called ‘affinity group’ charters. Hence, organisations such as the ‘Curepipe and Tunbridge Wells Gardening Club’, in which instant membership could be obtained for a nominal $5, sprang up to organise such flights.¹