A Markov Model Applied to the Circulation of Social Science and Literature Books in a Public Library

Use studies are often important in making decisions about weeding shelves. Circulation records, combined with measures of inhouse use and with more subjective estimations of the value of books, help determine which books may be discarded or relegated to storage. For example, one can predict—and studies have borne out this prediction—that if a book has not circulated within five years of its acquisition, chances are it will not circulate at all. Such a book may be a good candidate for weeding. The question is whether one can also make predictions about books that are used. Studies have shown that books decline in use as they age. If one can determine the rate of this decline, one may be able to predict when books in use will fall into disuse—and thus become candidates for weeding.