Risk analysis approach for generation adequacy assessment in a deregulated environment

A system operator (SO) of a transmission network consistently aims to minimise operating costs whilst still maintaining a certain degree of system adequacy. One of the ways to achieve this is by minimising the level of spinning reserve (SR) in the system. In order to do so, the level of SR must be analysed. This study looks at quantifying the risk of inadequacy when the SR is varied. A study was done for a period of 24 h with 30 m intervals to determine the risk level at each period. The number of generators despatched, system power margin and the system sell price was all taken into account. Risk was then computed by factoring the probability of generation inadequacy and the cost of purchasing the imbalance from the balancing market.