– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of armed conflict on the vulnerability to natural hazards.
– The authors employ panel estimates of disaster deaths on a lagged indicator of the presence of armed conflict.
– Disaster deaths following armed conflict are on average 40 percent higher compared to disasters that are chronologically detached from armed conflict events; a legacy of armed conflict accounts for roughly 14 percent of the approximately five million disaster deaths between 1961 and 2010.
– A global estimate of the relationship between armed conflict and disaster vulnerability can help disaster management planners identify policy priorities associated with disaster prevention and management.
– The analysis reinforces the findings in previous qualitative studies of a causal link between armed conflict and increased disaster vulnerability and provides a quantitative estimate of the average magnitude of this relationship.
