The main purpose of this paper is to analyze which standard/technology will win the 3G mobile markets. In addition, two sub topics are examined. First, which kind of victory will it be – will one technological solution be all‐dominating or is co‐existence more likely? Second, which are the most decisive factors in the battle between the different standards – which roles do respectively technology path‐dependence, network effects and strategic concerns play?
The approach taken in the paper is to examine the different kinds of stakeholders – in this field, first and foremost, equipment manufacturers, network operators, policy makers/administrators and end users; to analyze how such stakeholders are intervening in the different relevant steps – technology development, technology deployment and technology take‐up – and to analyze these issues from different angles – technology, markets and economy, policy and regulation, and other social aspects.
The paper concludes that WCDMA will dominate the markets, but that there will be a co‐existence of different solutions – also inside individual countries where more than one solution is implemented.
The paper is based on the understanding that a vast array of different factors in a complex dynamic environment goes into the determination of the outcome of such standardization games. However, the battle between 3G standards has already reached a level, where relatively certain predictions can be made. And, the paper contributes with a methodologically based discussion concerning the outcome of the battle between 3G standards.
