The Polish business scene in the new millennium

Discusses Polish political‐economic developments during the first decade of transformation, aiming to identify the key features likely to shape the business climate in the new millennium. The paper has three parts: first, critical aspects of the Polish political scene are described and an attempt is made to map out likely futures and downside risks, emphasising business and economic connections; this is followed by a similarly structured economics section where description of recent performance and policy is followed by an outline of likely developments and risks; a third section summarises progress in FDI, privatisation and in shaping Polish capitalism, and again looks ahead to possible futures. The mainstream expectation is of continuing opening up of good business opportunities in a basically stable political environment but any serious downturn in the international economy will inevitably sharpen internal tensions and threaten to blow off course what has been a broadly successful system transformation.