A variety of buffer allocation methods exist to distribute an aggregated time buffer among project activities. However, these methods do not pay simultaneous attention to two key attributes of disruptive events that may occur during the construction phase: probability and impact. This paper fills this research gap by developing a buffer allocation method that takes into account the synergistic impact of these two attributes on project activities.
This paper develops a three-step method, calculating the probability that project activities are disrupted in the first step, followed by measuring the potential impact of disruption on project activities, and then proposing a risk-informed buffer allocation index by simultaneously integrating probability and impact outputs from the first two steps.
The proposed method provides more accurate results by sidestepping the shortcomings of conventional fuzzy-based and simulation-based methods that are purely based on expert judgments or historical precedence. Further, the paper provides decision-makers with a buffer allocation method that helps in developing cost-effective buffering and backup strategies by prioritizing project activities and their required resources.
This paper develops a risk-informed buffer allocation method that differs from those already available. The simultaneous pursuit of the probability and impact of disruptions distinguishes our method from conventional buffer allocation methods. Further, this paper intertwines the research domains of complexity science and construction management by performing centrality analysis and incorporating a key attribute of project complexity (i.e. the interconnectedness between project activities) into the process for buffer allocation.
