Long‐term forecasting of consumer durable markets

Highlights that in spite of the notion generally held, that consumer durables are luxuries, the market displays some inertia comparable to that of non‐durables. Proposes that new analysis of the structure of the consumer‐durable markets leads to the concept that they have basic strengths that can only be temporarily violated. Distinguishes further between individual initial sales and statistical initial sales, also between individual replacement sales and statistical replacement sales. Closes by stating that consumers are not really affected by economic conditions, except in so far as they may postpone their purchases – particularly in the replacement sector.