Fifteen years on in higher education

The number of students in higher education has increased steadily since the early 1960s. In recent years, the proportion of school‐leavers qualified for and wanting to go on to higher education has remained fairly constant. But, even so, total student numbers have continued to go up because the number of 18‐year‐olds has been increasing year by year, reflecting the rising birthrate in the late 1950s and early 1960s. But this situation will not last much longer. The birthrate has fallen persistently every year since 1964; already this has produced a big decline in primary school rolls, and now it is beginning to affect secondary schools. From 1982 it will produce a decline in the number of 18‐year‐olds, which will become much steeper from 1989. How might the higher education system develop in the face of this prospect?