Patrick Moore asks is it TEOTWAWKI or AJH - which Y2K camp do you belong to?

Keywords Y2K, Contingency planning

A report, published 23 August 1999, titled "Background to contingency planning", cuts through the opinions on Y2K compliance. The report discusses how the two camps - one that deems it as TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it), the other as AJH (all just hype) - can confuse the issue. Written by Patrick Moore of risk management specialists, BSC Consulting, it describes the global impact of the so-called millennium bug and offers readers a considered judgement to make up their own mind about the possible dangers to the global economy.

In the report Moore describes the way the world is viewing the issue. The polarisation of the extremist views held by the TEOTWAWKIs and the moderate views of the AJHs means that many people find it difficult to make a judgement about what they should be considering in their Year 2000 contingency plans.

BSC, whose clients include Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and The National Aviation Traffic Services, argues that when it started compliance work in 1997,it found that, with the exception of a few large international organisations,general complacency reigned in business and governments. The AJH tag seemed to be accurate then and would have resulted in the end of the world as we know it. The compliance work latterly conducted by BSC has proved it is certainly not an"AJH" issue in the mind of the business world and a potential disaster in the UK looks like being averted. In addition, further research has found that UK organisations cannot view compliance in isolation. To hold this view is to simplify the issue too much. While testing systems internally for Y2K compliance is vital, organisations must also investigate and manage critical relationships in their supply chain. The interactions of our complex modern society, financial markets and the global economy must be considered and Y2K compliance should be seen merely as part of contingency plans as a whole. For example, the Y2K status of the Far and Middle East has serious implications to their Western trading partners.

"The fact of the matter is that no one has a crystal ball. We simply do not know what the world will look like by mid-2000. However, what is certain is that organisations which do nothing risk facing more difficulties because they have no contingency plan in place, which not only takes account of their own business operations but also the customers and suppliers they depend upon" says Patrick Moore.

He adds:

Businesses are exposed if they do not align their plans to support the business critical operations. Working through contingency plans which understand the business's dependencies on 'hard' issues such as power, security, fire alarms, and air-conditioning systems plus the "soft" issues such as petty cash,cash flow, transport of key people and communications reveals where risks are. The contingency effort needs to be synonymous with business success.

Copies of the report, Background to Contingency Planning can be bought from BSC Consulting by contacting Mike Abrey-Bugg on 020 7253 0621 at a price of£125.00. www.bsc@bsconsulting.com