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Purpose

The objective of this paper is to probe the extent of confidence and trust in oneself, in others, and in the future when devising plans and strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper evokes specific incidents, past and present, marking the bases of confidence sustained, abandoned, or disregarded.

Findings

This paper presents examples of outcomes that may be overlaid on readers' current exercises in planning or scenario development.

Originality/value

This is an example of the continuing value of analyses in retrostrategy: understanding how/why a future‐oriented scheme is succeeding, failing, or having indifferent effect.

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