The certainty of uncertainty: risk management revisited

The objective of this paper is to scan flagrant cases of uncertainty and hesitation in the conception of plans and strategy and to assess new results in risk management.

The paper uses outstanding examples, present and past (and some future), of both risk taking and risk aversion and their concrete consequences – whether action follows or is blocked by lack of certitude or perhaps confidence.

The paper shows that the wilful overcoming of missing assuredness may incur, in its turn, hazardous risk.

The paper illustrates the roles of knowledge, precautions wisely taken, and being willing or hesitating to risk the sometimes long shot.