Technology forecasting for residential energy management devices

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the performance and adoption of residential energy management technology (REMT).

The paper integrates scenarios, analogy and Bass diffusion model.

Four different scenarios were identified. Bass curve parameters were extracted through many different existing devices, and then fit into each scenario subjectively to produce four different kinds of diffusion curves.

The approach and the model provide decision and policy makers to evaluate how they should position new energy management innovations based on the desired type of diffusion.