This paper proposes a combined data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Grey system theory to evaluate and forecast the business performance of the logistics industry in Vietnam. This approach provides managers, investors and policymakers with a comprehensive framework for evaluating companies’ business performance and highlights the areas of improvement to maximize the potential growth of the industry.
To evaluate the business performance of 20 logistics enterprises in Vietnam from 2019 to 2023, this study employs the DEA-based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI). This analysis provides a basis for forecasting future performance. Subsequently, the Grey system theory - first-order and one-variable model GM(1,1) is applied to project the business results of these companies from 2024 to 2027, utilizing the insights gained from the DEA-based MPI to inform the forecasting process.
Companies have not fully capitalized on recovery opportunities, resulting in fluctuations in efficiency scores from 2019 to 2023. The logistics market is forecasted to grow in the future periods, with many companies showing efficiency throughout the periods. However, some will need to refine management practices and implement technological innovations to prevent stagnation.
This study uses a hybrid model and shows that it is effective in evaluating the business performance of logistics companies from the past to the future. The model emphasizes a comprehensive quantitative framework of efficiency assessment by applying the DEA model and Grey system theory for forecasting under conditions of limited data.
