Climate change and migratory patterns of Fulani Herdsmen in Nigeria Open Access

Climate change has become a critical issue worldwide with disastrous implications for societies and ecosystems in general. Its most telling effects include increased competition over resources, usually resulting in conflicts and displacement of people. In Nigeria, the interaction of climate change, resource competition and migration has raised several challenges, more so for the Fulani, traditionally nomadic pastoralists. Traditionally, the Fulani depended on livestock for survival, migrating across lands in search of suitable grazing lands. However, with a changing climate characterised by erratic rainfall patterns, increased frequency and severity of droughts, and desertification, traditional routes of migration have been broken, and pasture is increasingly scarce; this has been forcing many Fulani Herdsmen to either look for other livelihoods or migrate to resource-rich areas, most times in conflict zones with sedentary populations.

While past studies have looked into different aspects of this complex puzzle such as the connection between climate change and resource availability (Ikhuoso et al., 2020; Njoku et al., 2023; Braimah et al., 2024), the way resource scarcity causes conflict (Awotokun et al., 2020; Liman et al., 2024) and climate-induced migration in general (Madu and Nwankwo, 2021; Chukwudi et al., 2024), there remains a significant lacuna in the literature that identifies how the Fulani Herdsmen migrate due to changes in climate and the derived socio-economic and security repercussions.

This study, therefore, seeks to fill this gap in knowledge by examining in great detail the complex relationship between climate change, migratory routes of Fulani Herdsmen and resulting conflicts with host communities. In particular, it answered the following questions:

By investigating the drivers of migration, the socio-economic impacts on both herders and host populations, and potential policy responses, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the complex challenges posed by climate change-induced migration. The insights gained from this research will be instrumental in informing the design of effective strategies to mitigate conflict and promote sustainable livelihoods for all affected populations.

Multiple studies have identified climate change as a major factor responsible for resource scarcity (Aremu and Abraham, 2018; Ekanem, 2022; Ikhuoso et al., 2020; Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). The effects of climate change, such as desertification, can result in a loss of existing natural resources available to a population. According to Ekanem (2022), at least 50–75% of the land in the northern parts of Nigeria is now desert. The loss of usable farmland due to desertification is also accompanied by water shortage and scarcity, which further strains the already stressed natural resources (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). People’s access to natural resources necessary to sustain their livelihood can be restricted by climate change. Barnett and Adger (2007) give a scenario of Timor where climate change can trigger a food crisis despite underlying social problems being the deeper cause. Brown et al. (2007) argue that climate change is a security threat for Africa as “projected climatic changes for Africa suggest a future of increasingly scarce water, collapsing agricultural yields, encroaching desert and damaged coastal infrastructure”. This projected future can result in increased tensions over scarce natural resources.

According to Odoh and Chilaka (2012), the resource scarcity caused by climate change is the immediate cause of Fulani Herdsmen and farmer conflicts in Nigeria. Climate change has resulted in the migration of Fulani Herdsmen in search of grazing grounds for their cattle (Aremu and Abraham, 2018). This has resulted in herdsmen wandering out of their usual grazing route, leading to conflict with farmers who, due to weather-related factors, cultivate more land each year (Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). This situation is best embodied by a statement from Aremu and Abraham (2018), which claims that “environmental scarcity, which is a result of migration (and migration results from climate change), is a cause of environmental conflicts.” Ekanem (2022) claims that climate change resulted in resource competition between Fulani Herdsmen and Tiv farmers since it is the major factor that forced Fulani Herdsmen from the Lake Chad Basin to migrate to Benue. With a large population from Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Central Africa Republic deriving their livelihood from Lake Chad Basin, the far-reaching impact of its shrinking can be imagined, and the migration of Fulani Herdsmen due to this is a key factor in the resulting conflicts (Aremu and Abraham, 2018; Akinyemi et al., 2024). Furini (2019) claims that climate change is a major contributor to worsening droughts and desertification, which are key factors in the migration of Fulani herders. Climate change can hence be considered the remote cause of the resulting competition for limited natural resources and conflicts between the Fulani Herdsmen and farmers (Ikhuoso et al., 2020).

The clashes between the Fulani Herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria impact security in the regions where they occur (Barnett and Adger, 2007; Brown et al., 2007; Idehen and Ikuru, 2019; Scheffran, 2008). Ani and Uwizeyimana (2022) account for the impact of the conflicts. The report indicated that the conflicts that involved both the farmers and herders within the Ebonyi State had led to the death of livestock, the expulsion of Fulani Herdsmen, and killed farmers and herdsmen from both sides. Conflicts between farmers and herders have escalated into a dangerous stage because of the use of armed ammunition and other lethal weapons (Effevottu and Ihuoma, 2019). Over 3,000 people lost their lives due to such clashes from 2004 through 2018 (Effevottu and Ihuoma, 2019). Besides the chances of bloodshed and related conflicts, climate change can influence the livelihood and food security of the natives in such areas.

The review of three bodies of scholarship, climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (IVA), food security, and sustainable livelihoods, conducted by Connolly-Boutin and Smit (2016), was the basis for developing a conceptual framework, illustrated in Figure 1, to explain the interconnection between climate change, food security and sustainable livelihoods (Oyelami et al., 2023). This conceptual framework (i.e. the climate change, food security and livelihood framework) shows how we can draw on common concepts in climate change IVA, sustainable livelihood approaches and food security to conceptualise and analyse the implications of climate change.

A growing body of literature has established a robust link between climate change and migration patterns. As noted earlier in the article, climate change is a major factor in the migration of Fulani Herdsmen. According to Jalo (2018), the search for greener pastures has led to the migration of Fulani Herdsmen as desert encroachment of the Sahel region due to climate change has depleted available natural resources in the area. However, the case of Fulani Herdsmen is not the sole evidence for the relationship between climate change and migration. Climate change is a significant factor in households’ decision to migrate. As it were, in the context of climate change, the weather-related shocks influenced household migration decisions. Even more interestingly, migrants were more likely to be caused by slow-onset weather shocks, such as droughts, than rapid-onset weather shocks, such as flooding.

While there have been numerous studies conducted to document the links between violence, resource scarcity, and climate change, this study tries to explain specifically what dynamics come into play in regard to climate change and how it influences the migration patterns among Fulani Herdsmen in Nigeria.

With the advent of climate change, Fulani Herdsmen have been driven southward to seek better pastures. Traditional routes are disrupted as herders face expanded residential and agricultural settlements on pastoral reserves, thus forcing migration routes to change or clash with natives of the other locality (International Crisis Group, 2018; Odoh and Chilaka, 2012). These matters have equally been exacerbated through urbanisation and infrastructural construction over once pastoral areas. With the construction of routes, highways and bridges over traditional transhumance routes, herders are being coerced to seek other means, mainly through crop fields (Adebajo, 2022). Conflicts between farmers and herders have become increasingly intense due to the increasing contact between crops and cattle. Newly constructed highways have sometimes been transhumance routes for animals, putting other drivers at risk and increasing hostility (Adebajo, 2022). The shift in migration has occurred due to climate change, seriously affecting both herders and the host population.

Researchers and groups also studied the impacts of climate change on Fulani herders. Several observed impacts include climate-induced migration. However, this is not the same concerning the impact climate-induced migration has had on Fulani herders because the media often tends to represent the group as the perpetrators rather than the victims of the resulting conflicts and losses. It was a study into the different socio-economic effects of climate-induced migration on Fulani Herdsmen by examining reports from the International Crisis Group (ICON), the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom and the International Organisation for Peace-building and Social Justice. The Fulani Herdsmen were also victims of unprovoked violence in Nigeria, perpetuating historical tensions that long have plagued the region. For example, in what were believed to be reprisal killings, two minors and a 30-year-old man were killed in an attack on Fulani herders in Kaduna. Larger-scale attacks have been reported, including the killing of 23 Fulani by youths in a single incident and the massacre of 80 Fulani, including a three-day-old infant, in Numan village (Amnesty International, 2018; USCIRF, 2024). The persistence of violence speaks not only to immediate hurts but also to a more profound history of conflict exacerbated by socio-economic forces emanating from climate change.

As noted in the 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) synthesis report, experiences of highest vulnerability relate to the placement of a community within areas with limited access to basic resources, areas with persistent violent conflict, and those highly dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods. A vicious cycle thus develops in which the adverse impacts of climate change worsen living standards for such communities, further increasing competition for scarce resources. This, in turn, can further exacerbate the age-old conflict between Fulani Herdsmen and farming communities. Figure 2 below shows ecosystem damage and agricultural production from climate change with a high degree of confidence (IPCC, 2023). That, in turn, becomes a self-reinforcing circle: violent conflicts with the Fulani Herdsmen reflect existing tensions. At the same time, they are part of the consequences of climate change, which are the growing root causes of such conflicts.

As climate change continues to deteriorate conditions for grazing and access to water, competition between herders and farmers will rise, leading to an ongoing cycle of violence and vengeance. Such a complicated interplay between climate-induced migration and historical grievances encompasses deep-seated conflicts that can only be mitigated by broad understanding and targeted policy interventions.

While existing literature extensively documents the impacts of climate-induced migration on host communities, a rigorous analysis of recent reports and data reveals novel insights into this complex phenomenon. Amnesty International (2018) documented violent clashes between farmer and herder communities in Nigeria between 2016 and 2018. The organisation discovered that between January 2016 and October 2018, at least 3,641 people were killed among Fulani Herdsmen and the farming communities, with 57% of these deaths occurring in 2018 (Ehiane et al., 2024). A critical dimension of the conflict most studies fail to touch upon is the failure of the security forces in these regions, with reports of financial extortion by these forces (Amnesty International, 2018). Interviews with residents of various Northern States revealed human rights violations by soldiers, with multiple incidences of houses being burned down and property being damaged. International Crisis Group (ICON) refer to the killings happening in Nigeria as the “silent slaughter of genocide” with Fulani Herdsmen responsible for 19,101 recorded deaths between 2000 and 2020, the largest after Boko Haram at 52,861 deaths (Braimah et al., 2024). Climate-induced migration’s impacts on various host communities require attention as government bodies have shown a lack of interest in addressing the issue (Duke and Agbaji, 2020).

The most salient consequence of climate change-induced migration of Fulani Herdsmen is the occurrence of violent clashes with host communities. Effective mitigation of these conflicts is key to enhancing the security and livelihoods of both groups. Olaseeni (2021) posits that the clashes between Fulani Herdsmen and farmers can be best resolved through legal initiatives. This claim is not without merit as the failure of the Nigerian Government to prosecute and punish violent perpetrators, including Fulani Herdsmen, farmers or security forces responsible for their protection, has, in turn, encouraged more acts of violence (Amnesty International, 2018; Olaseeni, 2021). Effective land and resource management policies are vital in mitigating escalating conflicts. Olumba (2022) posits that the prevalent conflicts align with Homer-Dixon’s eco-violence theory, wherein resource scarcity, stemming from an imbalance between population and available resources, intensifies competition. While acknowledging the influence of other factors, the role of resource scarcity in these conflicts cannot be overstated. The complex dynamics of the conflict require further investigation, including the alleged collusion between elites and Fulani Herdsmen in acts of violence (Amnesty International, 2018; Olumba, 2022). Reports of military personnel complicity warrant serious attention. Such collaborations erode public trust in government institutions and potentially destabilise the region. Robust monitoring and stringent law enforcement are imperative to address this critical issue.

This study employs Homer-Dixon's (1994) eco-violence theory and the Push-Pull Migration Theory (1966) as the core framework for explaining the triangular, complex relationship between climate change, resource competition, and conflict that has occurred within the context of Fulani herdsmen’s migration in Nigeria. Eco-violence theory postulates that population growth, environmental degradation, and unequal resource distribution might ascend to violent conflict. All over Nigeria, the negative impact of climate change, desertification and resource depletion increase the competition between Fulani Herdsmen and the host communities, especially over core resources such as grazing lands and water. According to Homer-Dixon (1994), this theoretical perspective allows an in-depth understanding of how rivalry over dwindling resources may induce conflict, especially in regions severely affected by climate-induced challenges. Olumba (2022) further explains eco-violence as the conflicts arising from the struggle for scarce resources exacerbated by demographic, economic, and political pressure, which is the appropriate definition of the conflicts occurring in Nigeria.

Complementary to the theory of eco-violence, the Push-Pull Migration Theory, as first presented by Lee (1966), gives insight into the causes of migration by the Fulani Herdsmen. These involve such push factors as environmental stressors like drought and resource scarcity, while pull factors include the availability of better grazing lands and economic opportunities presented by host communities. The ‘dual perspective’ here refers to the simultaneous consideration of both push and pull factors in understanding migration. This approach highlights that, in most instances, migration is a survival strategy compelled by climate-induced challenges. The theory of relative deprivation should be applied in understanding the rationale of herdsmen migration; they migrate to avoid adverse conditions in search of more favourable conditions elsewhere. These two theories are combined in this study to effect a holistic analysis of the relationship existing between climate change and the migratory Fulani Herdsmen, the socioeconomic effects of climate change-induced migration on the herdsmen and their host communities in Nigeria, and the measures in law and policy required to mitigate the conflicts arising from such migration.

The solving of Fulani herdsmen’s challenges needs an understanding of the nexus between climate change, migration, and violence. Climate change, indeed, has been a key driver of migration, since changes in the environment lower the levels of key resources. Resource scarcity compels herdsmen to move in search of viable pasturelands, increasing competition with settled agricultural communities and heightening the risk of conflict. Most often, as Fulani Herdsmen migrate into new territories, they find themselves in direct competition with local farmers over resources that grow increasingly diminished. The struggle for livelihood can very quickly escalate grievances to violence, creating a cycle of conflict that is very evident in regions most hard hit by climate change. This dynamic is further complicated in the socio-political landscape of Nigeria, which is characterised by power imbalances and governance failures. These factors, informed by political ecology-informed underpinnings such as those by Blaikie and Brookfield (1987), raise the levels of vulnerability among herdsmen to violence from both state and non-state actors.

The absence of effective and enforced laws that guide land use and resource distribution compounds these tensions, underpinning the need for governance challenges to be at the heart of conflict mitigation strategies. The linkages among climate change, migration, and violence are increasingly complex. By applying eco-violence theory and the Push-Pull Migration Theory, this research provides a sound basis for placing the issues affecting Fulani Herdsmen into perspective. Theoretically, this paper gives credence to holistic strategies that will address the immediate effects of climate change on migration and build resilience to encourage peaceful coexistence between herdsmen and their host communities.

This study employed the qualitative research design, in which information was gathered from both published and unpublished secondary data sources for an investigation into the climate change phenomenon and the migration of Fulani Herdsmen in Nigeria. This design was adopted since its strength allows for an in-depth exploration of the complexities of socio-environmental dynamics not easily quantifiable, such as socioeconomic and cultural impacts of migration, the influence of climate-induced factors on migration, and resultant conflicts between herders and farming communities (Mohajan, 2018).

Data were taken from a myriad of credible sources to ensure that a comprehensive and balanced view is attained. The secondary data for the study was gathered from recent peer-reviewed journals, government reports and other non-governmental organisation publications focusing on issues of climate change, migration, and conflict in Nigeria. These levels of secondary data sources provide methods through which the review of the existing empirical evidence on climate-induced migration and their many-sided implications for herdsmen and farming communities alike can be approached. We also concentrated on the most recent research and reports from the last decade so that our analysis is still relevant and up-to-date (Johnston, 2014)

This study applied thematic analysis, following Braun and Clarke's (2006) six-phase approach to identify and interpret patterns within the qualitative data, specifically on climate change impacts, migration processes, socio-economic effects, and policy implications:

1. Familiarisation: All documents and reports were read thoroughly to identify preliminary patterns related to climate-induced migration, conflict and socio-economic impacts.

2. Initial Coding: After familiarisation, data were systematically coded into categories like “climate change impact”, “migration patterns”, “conflict dynamics”, “socio-economic effects” and “policy responses”, which helped streamline extensive text into key research-relevant themes.

3. Theme Development: Codes were grouped into broader themes aligned with research objectives, such as “Drivers of Migration” (encompassing environmental degradation, drought and resource scarcity) and “Policy Gaps” (covering policy limitations).

4. Theme Review: Themes were refined for coherence, ensuring they accurately represented the data. Themes were adjusted, combined or removed if they did not align well with the study’s research focus.

5. Naming and Definition: Themes were finalised and labelled to reflect their essence, resulting in categories like “Impact of Climate Change on Migration”, “Socio-economic Effects on Farming Communities” and “Policy and Legal Responses”.

6. Synthesis and Writing: Finally, findings were synthesised into coherent text, with each theme supported by data evidence and relevant literature, and supplemented with figures and summaries for clarity and depth.

Triangulation in this secondary data analysis was performed using multiple highly recognised sources to assure rigour. This enabled the cross-checking of information and enhanced the strength of the results. In addition, recent reports were preferred over older ones regarding maintaining relevance within the fast-evolving climate change and migration arena.

This rigorous thematic analysis provided a detailed understanding of the drivers and impacts of climate-induced migration among Fulani Herdsmen in Nigeria, along with the legal and policy challenges in addressing these complex dynamics. The study thus provided practical insights into policy frameworks that could reduce the likelihood of conflict by reinforcing socio-economic resilience among affected communities.

The findings from this study identify some of the complex relationships between climate-induced migration, socio-economic impacts, and policy challenges that characterise the migratory patterns of Fulani Herdsmen in Nigeria. Each of the key themes is summarised below, reflecting the direct observations and insights derived from the literature reviewed and data analysis.

The analysis identified that climate change has significantly influenced the migratory behaviour of Fulani herders, who are forced to migrate southward due to the depletion of grazing resources. Due to increased agricultural and residential encroachment, disruptions to traditional migration routes have intensified conflicts with host communities. A report by Adebajo (2022) highlighted that infrastructural developments, such as new roads and bridges, have also disrupted established pastoral corridors. One report notes that “herders now use constructed roads as new transhumance paths, raising risks for both herds and road users”. This observation underscores the need for regulated transhumance routes to mitigate conflicts resulting from these changes.

Secondary data reveals that Fulani herders face substantial socioeconomic challenges due to climate-induced migration, as they frequently become targets of reprisal attacks. One documented instance described by Abdulaziz (2020) involved an attack on herders that led to the death of two minors and a 30-year-old man in Kaduna. Amnesty International (2018) records another incident where 80 Fulani individuals, including a newborn, were killed in a village conflict. According to the IPCC (2023), “regions lacking basic resources and experiencing high levels of violence are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change”, reflecting the cyclical relationship between climate challenges, violent conflict, and socioeconomic instability.

Host communities also experience socioeconomic disruptions due to the influx of migrating herders. Amnesty International (2018) documented violent clashes between farming and herding communities, with more than 3,641 fatalities between 2016 and 2018, particularly among those involved in farming and herding. Interviews with residents reveal ongoing human rights violations by security forces, with reports of property damage and forced evictions, which one local leader described as “a betrayal of trust in government protection”. These accounts highlight the need for more effective intervention measures to prevent escalating violence and protect both herders and host communities.

Effective legal frameworks and policy measures are essential in addressing conflicts arising from climate-induced migration. Current reports suggest a lack of accountability and insufficient land and resource management policies exacerbate these issues. Olaseeni (2021) emphasises that “land and resource management policies are essential for mitigating these conflicts”, advocating for a more stringent legal approach. Moreover, collusion between military personnel and violent actors remains a significant concern, as Amnesty International (2018) points out that “military complicity erodes public trust in government institutions”. Strengthening legal enforcement and implementing targeted resource management policies are imperative for sustainable conflict resolution.

This study has examined the complex interplay between climate change, the migratory patterns of Fulani Herdsmen, and the subsequent socioeconomic and security challenges in Nigeria. The analysis of existing studies and data has demonstrated how climate change worsened resource scarcity and compelled Fulani Herdsmen to shift their migration patterns in search of livelihoods. Such migration, the findings showed, had quite significant impacts on the socio-economic spheres of both Fulani Herdsmen and host communities. As a result of displacement, resource competition, and violent conflict, vulnerabilities among Fulani Herdsmen are increasing, whereas for the host communities, the socio-economic disruptions involve loss of livelihoods, environmental degradation, and heightened security threats. These findings have very deep-reaching implications, pointing to the fact that the consequences of climate change go well beyond environmental concerns into crucial social stability and economic viability in Nigeria.

Unless these interlocking issues are dealt with, security will continue to deteriorate, violence will rise, displacement will increase, and a humanitarian crisis could ensue. In this regard, there is a dire need for efficient legal and policy frameworks that could satisfactorily help address such challenges and lessen the adverse impacts of climate change-induced migration. Such challenges require a multi-faceted approach-from implementing sustainable land-use management, achieved by agricultural and environmental ministries working together to promote farming practices that enhance land productivity while minimising degradation to investing in early warning systems for climate-related hazards. This would be realised through partnerships between meteorological agencies and local communities to ensure timely communication about risks and preparedness.

This would also involve livelihood diversification for the Fulani Herdsmen through engagement with development organisations that will provide training and resource support in alternative income-generating activities for herdsmen to decrease their dependence on pastoralism. Conflict resolution mechanisms would also be important, such as establishing community-based mediation committees that bring together representatives of herdsmen and host communities facilitated by local governance structures.

What is crucially needed is immediate and concerted collaboration among government agencies, civil society organisations (CSOs), and local communities. CSOs, with their grassroots perspectives, can play a pivotal role in fostering community participation in the design and implementation of comprehensive adaptation strategies tailored to the specific needs of each locality.

Understanding the intricate interplay between climate change, migration and conflict is crucial. This understanding will guide policymakers, researchers and practitioners in developing and implementing sustainable solutions that promote peace, security, and resilience among vulnerable populations.

A call for an inclusive dialogue in which all stakeholders, agencies, local communities, and nongovernmental organisations come together to prioritise the voices of those most affected by these changes so that policies may be responsive and effective towards addressing root causes of challenges.

The authors would like to express their gratitude to the administration of Covenant University Center for Research, Innovation and Discovery (CUCRID) for providing the framework for this study as well as publication assistance in the form of paper processing fees. The authors acknowledge the reviewers as well for their insightful remarks.

Conflict of interest: There is no conflict of interest.