Modelling climate change risks for food security in the Philippines Open Access

Quirino Province, the Philippines, lies in the southeastern portion of Cagayan Valley (Region II), approximately between 121° 00′ to 122° 02′ N latitude and 15° 54.8′ to 16° 38.6′ W longitude. It is within the upper Cagayan River Basin bounded by Isabela on the north, Aurora on the east and southeast and Nueva Vizcaya on the west and southwest. The Sierra Madre mountain range provides a natural barrier on the eastern and southeastern border and Mamparang range on the western part of the province. The province occupies a total land area of 305,718 hectares more or less which is approximately 11.75 per cent of the total regional land area or 1.02 per cent of the Philippines’ land area. Quirino has a total of 70,258 hectares of alienable and disposable land, 66 per cent of which is agricultural land and 11 per cent is used for agro-forestry. Its total forest land area is 235,000 hectares, but only 33 per cent is close canopy forest. Quirino’s mineral deposits include gold, cooper, manganese, limestone, marble, guano, gravel and sand. The smallest of its nine municipalities is the Municipality of Saguday with a total land area of 55.50 km2 which in 2010 had a recorded population of 14,596 people averaging about 260 people per km2.

The 2010 Census of Population and Housing found that the Province of Quirino had a total population of 176,786 persons as of May 1, 2010 (Philippine Statistics Office, 2013). Among the six municipalities comprising the Province of Quirino, the Municipality of Diffun was the most populous with a population size making up 27.4 per cent of the total provincial population while Saguday represented 8.3 per cent of the provincial population. The 2010 Census also found that the young dependents (0 to 14 years) comprised 33.0 per cent of the household population while the old dependents (65 years and over) posted a share of 4.1 per cent. The working age population (15 to 64 years) accounted for the remaining 62.9 per cent. The average household size in the Province of Quirino is 4.4 persons. The provincial labour force is about 96,000. The literacy rate is 91.51 per cent. In addition, only 71 per cent of the households have electricity. There are only six hotels in the province and none in the town of Saguday. There are ten banks in the province, but just one is located in Saguday. There are merely four higher education institutions in the province (Province of Quirino, 2013).

The Municipality of Saguday in Quirino Province, the Philippines began as a barrio of the Municipality of Santiago in Isabela. At present, Saguday is a fifth class municipality with limited income and scarce resources and is comprised of nine Barangays – La Paz, Cardenas, Salvacion, Santo Tomas, Rizal, Tres Reyes, Dibul, Cardenas and Gamis, all of which are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events due to their geographical location and climatological condition. Being located in Quirino Province, it is part of the biggest water shed area in the region. Given its allocation of vast highlands, Quirino Province including Saguday could pose a region-wide environmental threat if its water resources are not adequately managed and protected (DENR-PENRO Quirino, 2013). Capitalizing on its location, the major industry in the Province of Quirino is farming. Aside from cultivating staple crops like rice which accounts for about 16,084 has 55,675 MT/Ave. per annual yield and corn which accounts for about 25,786 has 89,941 MT/Ave. per annual yield, they also raise crops with high commercial value, including banana (8,100 has 52,177 MT/Ave. per annual yield), mango (3,986 MT Ave. per annual yield) and vegetables, citrus, pineapples, coffee, coconut, papaya, lanzones, rambutan, etc. Another industry related to farming is the furniture and gifts and decor making. There is also some tourism activity ongoing in the province.

This study fixes on the constraints to food production in Saguday, Quirino. Given the municipality’s geographic location, flooding due to climate change has been identified as a significant detriment for Saguday to attain a food secure environment for its citizenry. As the results of the study will later show, Saguday’s vulnerability to climate change is not its only problem; its level of progress and development also has a significant impact on its food production capability. Regional and socio-political considerations must always be recognized in any food security discourse. Despite the national governments best efforts for a unified policy and programmatic response for food self-sufficiency, the example of Saguday best illustrates the need to likewise consider localized and community-based food security approaches (Figure 1). One such framework suggested by Taylor and Carandang (2010, 2011) known as the Urban Food Security Planning Process was designed to help communities achieve a level of sustainable food security by recognizing its inherent capacities and advantages. The goal of the authors was to highlight the fact that for a food security plan to become successful in a community, it must be guided by national interests and hinged on a sustainable legislative and fiscal framework as well as a morale and just commitment to international agreements on food security (Manasan et al., 1999; FAO, 2009; Republic of the Philippines, 2010). Without these guarantors, parochial interests will prevail, and the plan is doomed from the very start. Fajardo (1999) reminds us that there are also non-economic constraints to agriculture such as peoples’ attitudes, values and culture, efficient public administration, health, education, population and religion which have to be considered in the framing of policy and programmatic responses, in turn, requiring a participatory top-down and bottom-up approach (Carandang et al., 2014). Good governance practices need to be reinforced and sound management of the resources must be promoted most especially at the local level, given that food security has real political implications (Kuntjoro and Jamil, 2008). Given that domestic political considerations are pre-requisites in mitigating hunger (Jenkins and Scanlan, 2001), a strong political will to enforce the policies by both local and national executives should in turn guarantee success.

The existing Philippine stance on food security proposes that achieving a food secure condition in the Philippines is through a traditional top-down perspective. This study aims to provide an alternative bottom-up approach to food security study which focuses on how community food security using the case of Saguday, Quirino, is achieved by addressing four main questions:

Q1. Is Saguday, Quirino’s food production capable of responding to disasters caused by climate change?

Q2. Does the Municipality of Saguday have a sustainable food system in place?

Q3. How is Saguday, Quirino, able to recognize and adopt local knowledge and capacitate its agricultural sector for a sustainable food production?

Q4. Does Saguday have food governance policies? And how are these being implemented?

RQ1. Is Saguday, Quirino’s food production capable of responding to disasters caused by climate change?

To determine the climate risks, hazards and vulnerabilities the Municipality of Saguday is exposed to, both the probabilistic and deterministic simulation models were used (Carandang and Banaguas, 2013). For the hazard studies, 1,000 simulation experiments (applying the Monte Carlo method using the MATLAB software) were performed. To calculate the optimum number of people who would be exposed to the hazards, another 1,000 simulations were performed. For estimates of the vulnerability of Saguday to hazards, the simulated Human Development Index (HDI) value was calculated. The indicators (tropical cyclone, drought and flood for hazard; HDI for vulnerability; and population for exposure) were the inputs both in the probabilistic and controllable models. Data and other information used in this study were provided by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Institute of Social Order, Ateneo De Manila University, Manila Observatory and Municipality of Saguday in Quirino.

Extant data collected indicate that Saguday has been experiencing disasters (e.g. tropical cyclones, floods and droughts) for the last 10 years. This scenario is also reflected in the hazard modelling data and later confirmed by the records of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC, 2014). From 2007 to 2010, a total of 67 typhoons occurred in the Philippines or an annual average of 17. In the Cagayan Valley Region where Saguday is located, a total of 35 typhoons occurred or an average of 9 per year. In 2013, out of 11 typhoons that occurred in the Philippines, 3 passed directly the Cagayan Valley area. One of these is typhoon Labuyo internationally known as Utor which killed two persons with one missing and property damage amounting to more than PhP 57 million (USD 1.4 million) and more than PhP 14 million (USD 0.3 million) in agricultural damage to the region.

Using the geographic information system (GIS) modelling, the three parameters of risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) were mapped to identify the most vulnerable areas of Saguday during climate change events. The risk rank system was utilized to determine the Barangay with the highest risk by providing the order of the most susceptible areas during extreme perils. This information is vital in planning appropriate responses to calamities and the maximum use of meagre resources. A variation of the DPSIR (driver, pressure, state, impact and response) model adapted from Omann et al. (2009) was applied as a strategic management tool. The DPSIR model was chosen, as it provides a useful cause and effect framework, as it is used internationally to explore the relationships between the environment and socio-economic systems and to introduce the linkages between a natural disaster/climate change-related hazard and PPPs (planning, policy and programme). Drivers such as hazard, vulnerability and exposure create pressures including tropical cyclones, HDI and population to a state of the environment/area where there is a greater risk. This leads to social, environmental and economic impacts and, consequently, a need to develop responses to mitigate the frequency, duration and intensity of these impacts and risks. Aside from strategies to reduce the risks of hazard, responses can also be targeted towards influencing the drivers, relieving the pressures:

RQ2. Does the Municipality of Saguday have a sustainable food system in place? Is Saguday capable of shouldering the cost of disasters caused by climate change including the effect on food security?

To determine if Saguday, Quirino, possesses a sustainable food system, the study applied the following risk calculation previously described by Carandang and Banaguas (2013).

Risk in terms of casualties per year: 1

Risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability

According to the international standard most private and government-run health insurance plans worldwide use (Kingsbury, 2008), one’s life is theoretically worth $50,000.00 (which is around PhP 2,100,000.00 at 1 USD = PhP 42). If and only if fatal outcome really enters into the arena, for instance, can the risks be gauged to its financial equivalent.

Risk in terms of cost per casualty per year:

Risk (millions in USD) = risk (casualties per year) × USD 50,000.00/casualty

Results of the calculations were compared and correlated with literature reviews on public records and local policies such as the city charter, city health code, Sanggunian ordinances and local public bulletins related to food security and the food security programme of Saguday were also conducted to determine if the municipality does in fact possess a sustainable food system. Key informant interviews with public officials were also conducted and used to corroborate the findings on risk calculations:

RQ3. How is Saguday, Quirino, able to recognize and adopt local knowledge and capacitate its agricultural and food production sector for a sustainable food production?

To determine how Saguday, Quirino, can utilize local knowledge and empower the agricultural and food production sector, the study used the Urban Food Security Planning Process proposed by Taylor and Carandang (2010, 2011) to identify the stakeholders and best practice activities observed within the community.

Creating an urban food security plan should begin with an assessment of the existing natural capital and prevailing social conditions. This translates to an understanding of the urban ecosphere and the urban anthroposphere. The urban ecosphere is essentially the ecological and geographical risks/benefits found in the area (inherent natural elements) with their utilization expressed as the natural ecosystem drivers. Conversely, the urban anthroposphere describes the social classes, demographic composition, political atmosphere (dominant social system) which is expressed by the human ecosystem drivers.

Tensions of the dual mandate are what occur from conflicting priorities due to existing values/legislations/paradigms/resource allocation observed and practiced within a chosen community or society. Conversely, the planning process aspect of the Urban Food Security Planning Process is designed to be responsive to the comments/observations from all areas in question; thus, the Urban Food Security Plan can be purposefully designed to address specific geo/political or socio/economic or socio/political conditions inherent in a city or municipality.

Literature review on local food security best practices were also conducted. Key informant interviews with public officials from the local government sector and the nine Barangays as well as focused group discussions with residents/stakeholders were likewise conducted. Findings from the interviews and focused group, discussions were later used to verify the data available from secondary sources:

RQ4. Does Saguday have food governance policies? And how are these being implemented?

Another useful strategy for local communities to support and encourage agriculture and food productivity is direct engagement with community residents and stakeholders in the planning and implementation stages (Taylor et al., 2012a, 2012b). Engaging with stakeholders and community residents can help cities/municipalities take a “how to do” agriculture approach, one that promotes overall objectives of a particular community, rather than focusing solely on a consultative relationship.

In this effort, the study is applying the developmental framework towards achieving food security developed by Taylor et al. (2012a, 2012b). The proposed local and decentralized developmental framework towards achieving food security can be re-imagined as a greco/roman structure, complete with a roof, columns/pillars and foundations (Figure 1). Beginning with the roof, national interest encompasses all elements being the overriding mandate that guides the creation of a sustainable legislative and fiscal framework which is supported by international agreements and commitments. Conversely, the foundations are made up of the ethical values, socio-cultural norms and Filipino traditions, as these are what make us intrinsically Filipino. The Local Government Code of the Philippines can be equated as the foundation of the structure, as it creates the necessary pre-requisite conditions and layout for the columns/pillars to stand upon and help bridge the gap of responsive service provision and representation between the local government units (LGU), stakeholders (SH), non-government organizations (NGO), local populations (LP) and the national government.

For the house to stand firm or the framework to actually work, it is necessary for the fiscal support and political will to emanate from the national government, as they are responsible for the identification of national interest and budgetary allocations. From the ground-up, sound management and good governance must be promoted and observed at the lower levels, as these (SH, GO, NGO, LP and LGU) actors are the actual implementers of the policies and programmes. Given that they also exist at the levels where the food security issues are directly felt or expressed (consumer level, production level, sales and manufacturing levels), they should be better equipped and responsive to identify food security concerns. This model essentially helps identify and categorize the existence of food governance policies and the manner and method of their implementation.

Literature review on public records and local policies such as the city charter, city health code, Sanggunian ordinances and local public bulletins related to food security and the food security programme of the city were conducted. Key informant interviews with public officials from the local government sector and the nine Barangays as well as focused group discussions with residents/stakeholders were likewise conducted. Findings from the interviews and focused group discussions were later used to verify the data available from secondary sources.

Similar to other Southeast Asia countries, the food security risks being faced in Saguday are largely due to the impacts of climate change (Table I). In South Asia, where millions of smallholders depend on irrigated agriculture, climate change will drastically affect river flow and groundwater, the backbone of irrigation and rural economy (Nellemann, 2009). Furthermore, high magnitude flooding often leads to losses of cropland, uprooting of fruit trees, death of animals caught in high floodwater surges and destruction of infrastructure, such as irrigation facilities and rural roads. The damages done by floods tend to be exacerbated by an on-going desertification process and land degradation (Wiebelt et al., 2011).

For the hazard studies, 1,000 simulation experiments were performed. The results (Table I) suggest that there will be an increase in the number of tropical cyclones (an average of 33) that would enter and would stay for five days in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). These tropical cyclones would place the nine Barangays of the Municipality of Saguday at a vulnerable situation. There will also be 6 tropical depressions, 10 tropical storms, 14 typhoons and 6 super typhoons. Furthermore, there would be 20 floodings and each would last for 3 days. In addition, for the projected drought occurrence, five events are projected and each would last for three days.

To simulate the probable exposure of the population to the hazard, another 1,000 simulations were performed to calculate the optimum number of people that may be exposed to the hazards in Saguday. The population of Saguday was 15,392 as of 2009. Results of the simulation exercise indicated an exposure value for 17,023 individuals, or that the whole population of Saguday is potentially exposed to these hazards.

For estimates of vulnerability of Saguday to hazards, the simulated HDI value was 0.77, which suggests that the Municipality of Saguday is at the medium level (0.500-0.799) in terms of growth and progress (Virola and Martinez, 2007). This result suggests the capability of Saguday residents to adapt to an extreme event. Take note that the actual HDI of Saguday is 0.78 which is very close to the simulation value.

The HDI were calculated from the geometric mean of the normalized values of: the Life Expectancy Index or life expectancy at birth, Education Index or mean years of schooling or expected years of schooling and Income Index or the gross national income per capita (UN Human Development Report, 2010).

Based on the results of the simulation exercises, there are 33 tropical cyclones that may enter in the PAR. The risk in terms of probable casualties per year is expressed as:

Risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability

Risk = number of tropical cyclones per year × number of casualties (population) per tropical cyclone × HDI

Risk = 33 tropical cyclones per year × 17,023 casualties per tropical cyclone × 0.77

Risk (probable casualties per year) = 432,554

Risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability

Risk = number of flooding per year × number of casualties (population) per flood × HDI

Risk = 20 per year × 17,023 casualties per flood × 0.77

Risk (probable casualties per year) = 262,154

Risk = hazard × exposure × vulnerability

Risk = umber of drought per year × number of casualties per drought × HDI

Risk = 5 droughts per year × 17,023 casualties per drought × 0.77

Risk (probable casualties per year) = 65,538

In practice, one’s life has been valued to be equivalent to USD 50,000.00 (which is around PhP 2,500,000.00 at USD 1 = PhP 42). This value is the international standard most private and government-run health insurance plans use worldwide (Kingsbury, 2008). However, if and only if fatal outcome really enters into the question, then the risk can be gauged to its financial correspondence. In a previous study, the vulnerability to flooding has been defined as the degree of the population that will die as a result of flooding. The highest loss of people (factor 1.0) will happen at places where high flood depths occur, while there will be no loss of people (factor 0.0) at places where the flood depth is zero (Damen and van Westen, 2002). To estimate the cost per casualty per year, the following calculations were made.

Risk (USD millions of dollars) = risk (casualties per year) × USD 50,000.00/casualty

Risk = 432,554 casualties per year × USD 50,000.00

Risk (USD millions per year) = USD 21,628 million per year

or PhP 908,363 million per year at USD 1 = PhP 42

Risk (USD millions of dollars) = risk (casualties per year) × USD 50,000.00/casualty

Risk = 262,154 casualties per year × USD 50,000.00

Risk (USD millions per year) = USD 13,108 million per year

or PhP 550,523 million per year at USD 1 = PhP 42

Risk (USD millions of dollars) = risk (casualties per year) × USD 50,000.00 / casualty

Risk = 65,538 casualties per year × USD 50,000.00

Risk (USD millions per year) = USD 3,277 million per year

or PhP 137, 629 million per year at USD 1 = PhP 42

According to Section 324-d of the Local Government Code of the Philippines (Republic Act 8,185), 5 per cent of the estimated revenue from regular sources shall be set aside as an annual lump sum appropriation for unforeseen expenditures arising from the occurrence of calamities, provided, however, that such appropriation shall be used only in the area, or portion thereof, of the LGU or other areas declared by the President in a state of calamity. Table II presents the deadliest recorded storms and typhoons, and Table III presents the costliest recorded storms and typhoons; both data are from the Philippines. As the data suggests, the intensity and cost brought about by typhoons in the country cannot be overstated.

Based on the revenue allotment of 2009, the Municipality of Saguday registered a total collection of PhP 31,575,441.91. This was culled from the report of the comprehensive land use plan of Province of Quirino. In addition, based on 5 per cent of the total revenue, the Local Government of Saguday can only allot PhP 1,577,782 for calamity fund. Table IV provides the summary of the probable affected population and the budget distribution based on the above figure. Apparently, a budget of less than PhP 19.00 is allotted per individual at worst-case scenario. Table V provides the calculated budgetary allocation per person for a particular calamity. This sum is not even enough to buy a decent meal for each victim.

Table VI, in turn, provides the order of the most vulnerable areas in terms of their individual ranks per simulated indicator. Based on the results of the study, Rizal, Magsaysay and La Paz have the largest populations but lowest capacity to respond to climate hazards. These combined put them at a higher risk that the other Barangays, although all of the Barangays of Saguday, are vulnerable to the climate hazards identified.

The Manila Model for Urban Sustainability Planning Process developed by Taylor and Carandang (2010, 2011) and its evolution, the Urban Food Security Planning Process proposed by Carandang et al. (2014) (Figure 2) can also be applied to Saguday, Quirino. In determining the appropriate planning process, Carandang et al. (2014) proposed that local characteristics, the stakeholders’ perspectives, the local risks involved and the correct implementation strategy must be well-defined. That being said, the innate geographic, socio-political, cultural and historical conditions should be clearly defined by the stakeholders, creating a distinctly unique setup dependent on the overall characteristic of the community in question. To add to that, shared history and resources among stakeholders have likewise been found to be great motivators in their interaction and commitment to food security initiatives; conversely, competition for scarce resources have become points of contention among stakeholders. Normally, points of contention require a unifying “leader” or shared “concern” to rally and unite the stakeholders’ interests. For prospective policy makers, identifying key individuals and prioritizing concerns in a community is key for their policies and programmes to gain acceptance and traction.

The urban ecosphere and anthroposphere must also be well-understood, including the roles played by each character in forming the urban environment. Despite being largely agricultural, urban areas in Saguday are now expanding making it necessary for the local government units to incorporate an urban sector component in their policy response. For this part, the level of development in any community must be well-understood, as it would highlight the inherent strengths and weaknesses or capacity of the community to engage in food security initiatives (Jenkins and Scanlan, 2001). In the case of relevant manpower, financial resource and infrastructural investments, a community’s ability to maximize these facilities and improve them through innovation and research collaboration with other civil society stakeholders increases the probability of policy acceptance and programme implementation (Taylor and Carandang, 2010). For less developed communities, the presence and involvement of national agencies, non-governmental organizations and international agencies in the food security initiatives become necessary (Manasan et al., 1999). This, in turn, could result in further friction with different stakeholders and their supporters vying for priority and preference. Frequent examples of this case can be seen in the debate for ecological preservation of forested areas versus the growing needs of the agricultural sector for farming and grazing lands to meet the growing demand for food production (Nellemann, 2009). Unless a definitive and encompassing plan of action and re-evaluation is established, proposed food security actions and programmes might very well fail addressing local food security needs.

Investing in infrastructure has been found as an acceptable solution for the leaders and residents of Saguday as a means to mitigate and address climate change and disaster-driven risks and impacts. Updating existing infrastructure is a necessary course of action for the municipality. What will take more planning, effort and financing are the development of permanent food storage facilities and weather monitoring facilities, as these structures not only have to be placed strategically within Saguday, but they will also need periodic manning and maintenance. Capacity building both at the level of stakeholders and local government is integral for Saguday to become resilient to the impacts of climate change and disasters. This endeavour will take time, resources, financial investment and continuous participatory interaction between stakeholders and government representatives alike (Jenkins and Scanlan, 2001; Kuntjoro and Jamil, 2008; Taylor and Carandang, 2010; Wiebelt et al., 2011). The eventual success of capacity building initiatives can only be realized over time; therefore, it will also be necessary for the Municipality of Saguday to be patient and persevering.

Policy development and their implementation are largely an effort of the local government of Saguday, but the successful promotion and enforcement of these policies can only be achieved with the participation and involvement of the residents and stakeholders. Capitalizing on information dissemination and educational programmes are key drivers that can ensure policy acceptance and observance within the municipality. The adaptation of best practices in Saguday is not as easy as it sounds. Given the case of the proposed rainwater harvesting, simply scaling-up household or Barangay-level initiatives is not an assurance for successful adaptation of best practices. Best practices by nature are unique activities found to be appropriate solutions for a particular issue; therefore, simply copying them for another community or location could minimize their effectivity and capacity to become a sustainable practice. Therefore, careful planning and possible modifications to an identified best practice must also be factored by the leadership of Saguday prior to adopting the best practice activity.

The findings of the key informant interviews and the focus group discussion proved that the citizens of Saguday are indeed familiar with the climate-related hazards and how these affect their lives and compromises the food security of their locality. It was also apparent to them that there is a need for a disaster risk management programme to be formulated and implemented the soonest time possible. However, the planning and implementation of actions in reducing the risks, mitigating potential losses and preserving imminent prospects are critical challenges the local government of Saguday must face. To achieve these, the following recommendations and priority actions can be adopted by the Municipality of Saguday.

Knowing the risks and taking action involves identifying, assessing and monitoring food security risk and enhancing early warning are some of the most important things that need to be undertaken and applied in Saguday. Enhanced people-centred early warning systems and mechanisms should also be adopted, as they are necessary to allow for early alerts to trigger early action taking into consideration issues of trust and differences in access to information because of gender, social status or age and mobility. In Saguday, it is not enough to have a monitoring system in place; an information dissemination system must also be instituted to allow the agriculture and food production sector ample time to prepare against food shocks and shortages.

To reduce Saguday’s vulnerability and risks to the impacts of climate change/natural disaster, the local government should implement/enforce land use zoning and building codes, by protecting ecosystems and natural defenses. Developing insurance and microfinance initiatives should also be adopted, and this can be done by integrating risk mitigation measures and climate change adaptation activities. These would include adapting agriculture, fisheries and other industry practices through, for example, adjustment of crop and fishing calendars and introduction of climate-resilient crop and tree varieties; climate proofing of post-production management practices such as storage, drying and processing; improving sustainable natural and coastal resource management to increase resilience of food production systems; and investing in infrastructure and hazard proofing critical facilities. Diversifying livelihoods through decreasing dependence on the usual activities and increasing small-scale enterprise development is another option for the municipality to look into.

Being prepared and ready to act is a requirement for any community vulnerable to the effects of climate change and natural disasters. It becomes necessary for the local government to continuously develop and test contingency plans, establish emergency funds and coordination systems, as these are vital and essential for disaster mitigation and response. In strengthening its preparedness, it becomes necessary for Saguday to expand contingency planning, especially in areas prone to flood, windstorms or drought, that considers new and evolving risk scenarios and integrates the three (3B’s) “build back better” principles to induce prevention and adaptation in rehabilitation. A flexible funding mechanism at the international level that allows development and humanitarian resources to be invested in preparedness should also be tapped. The municipality must also improve its level of preparedness for diversified livelihoods response options through the use of social protection measures both for individuals and households. With the advent and ready access to modern technology, Saguday should capitalize on improving disaster awareness and preparation through the use of responsible media via newsprint, TV and radio stations; social media could also be tapped as an alternative venue for information dissemination.

The Municipality of Saguday must also update and improve their existing climate change/natural disaster information data base. Achieving this will require more investment in networks of climate stations, capacity building for interpreting information, user-friendly forecasting tools and products, linkages between service providers (researchers and hydro-meteorological services) and service users (humanitarian actors and climate sensitive sectors) and production of impact outlooks for specific audiences. Also, raising awareness and educating all sectors in the society, through school curricula and segmental trainings to reduce vulnerability, have to be done. These trainings should also be given not only to the educated and professionals but also to the marginalized sectors in the society. Seminars, conferences and forums should be organized so that all the Barangays have access to the information. Farmer awareness about drought and flood resistant crops should also be enhanced.

Different institutions such as Manila Observatory should consider partnering with local governments units in creating a data base of local-level vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change/natural disaster as well as a methodical local risk assessment that focuses on current threats on human life; food security; access to natural resources, agriculture, fisheries, marshland; and other industries. Accomplishing this will require reviewing climate risk information available at the local level; determining capacities for data collection and use; undertaking wide risk profiling with a focus on vulnerable areas, sectors and groups; and reviewing the Saguday zoning and land use plan taking into account the danger areas. Furthermore, planning, sufficient budgeting and implementation of risk reduction policies have to be done to avoid settlement in hazardous areas and the protection of crops from flooding and drought. The construction of dikes and embankments to minimize flood levels must also be made a priority. Putting-up post-harvest logistical facilities for temporary storage of harvest during heavy rains and flooding should also be considered.

The capability of Saguday, a fifth class municipality in the Philippines, to respond to climate change-induced risks was studied. To determine the climate risks, hazards and vulnerabilities, the Municipality of Saguday is exposed to both the probabilistic and deterministic simulation models were used. The indicators (tropical cyclone, drought and flood for hazard; HDI for vulnerability; and population for exposure) were the inputs both in the probabilistic and controllable models. Key informant interviews with public officials were also conducted and used to corroborate the findings on risk calculations. Data and other information used in this study were provided by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Institute of Social Order, Ateneo De Manila University, Manila Observatory and Municipality of Saguday in Quirino. Results of the simulation studies indicate that there will be an increase in the number of tropical cyclones that would enter and would stay for for days in the PAR. These tropical cyclones would place the nine Barangays of the Municipality of Saguday at a vulnerable situation with those with the largest populations having the lowest capacity to respond to climate hazards. The flooding is the main hazard that will be caused by the tropical cyclones, and the whole population of Saguday is potentially exposed to these hazards. Nevertheless, the results also suggest the capability of Saguday residents to adapt to extreme events despite the meager budget allocation of the municipality for calamities. The findings of the key informant interviews and the focus group discussion proved that the citizens of Saguday are indeed familiar with the climate-related hazards and how these affect their lives and compromises the food security of their locality. It was also apparent to them that there is a need for a disaster risk management program to be formulated and implemented the soonest time possible. To aid the municipality to improve on their capability to respond to climate change induced risks, several policy recommendations were given.

Julien L. Carandang is a Lecturer at the Political Science Department of De La Salle University. He is also a Programme Associate of the Yuchengco Center, where he represents the centre in the Philippine APEC Study Center Network (PASCN).He has previously written on the topics of church and state relations and on reproductive health policies in the Philippines. His current research is on food security policies and community food systems for urban and coastal cities.

Glenn S. Banaguas of De La Salle Araneta University aims to do research with a positive impact not just on marginalized peoples but also on the environment. He is involved in the modelling of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions; solid waste management; biodiesel production for the university; and its partners, policy creation for power and energy management. He uses global climate models, mathematics simulations and algorithms, GIS to study environmental change, such as to identify hot spots and to determine the intensity of tropical cyclones, sea level rise, global temperature.

Mary Jane C. Flores is an Associate Professor and currently the Vice Chair of the Biology Department, De La Salle University, Manila. She finished her masters and doctoral degrees in Biology in De La Salle University. She was awarded academic chairs in Science education in 2013-2014 and in Ecology in 2014-2015. Her research interests in parasitology include tick infestation in livestock and biocontrol, soil-transmitted helminths and other zoonotic infections. She has been elected as President of the Philippine Society of Parasitology, Inc. from 2015-2017. Her community engagement activities range from volunteer teaching and teacher training to health education and health promoting activities involving schoolchildren and their communities in the mission schools of DLSU. She is also involved in research regarding sustainable urban development in relation to climate change.

Jose Santos R. Carandang VI is a Full Professor of Biology at De La Salle University where he is currently the Chair of the Biology Department. His recent research involvement is on food security in collaboration with Dr Robert Taylor of Montclair State University, New Jersey in the USA, as well as in the management and biological control of invasive species affecting food production. He is a product of the University of Wuerzburg in Germany where he earned his doctorate in Natural Science and where he did a number of his post-doctoral researches. He also has a Master in National Security Administration degree from the National Defense College of the Philippines and a Master of Science in Biology from De La Salle University. He was the Founding Director of the De La Salle Food Institute. He also was the member for Biology of the Commission on Higher Education – Technical Panel for Science and Mathematics. Jose Santos R. Carandang VI is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: jose.santos.carandang@dlsu.edu.ph

This paper was developed from the results of two projects funded by the Angelo King Institute, De La Salle University.