Long-term reliability analysis of generation capacity based on the forecasted load demand helps to identify the optimal generation expansion plan of the system. This paper analyzes the generation adequacy of Mexico’s National Interconnected Power System (MNIPS) using loss of load expectation (LOLE) and loss of energy expectation (LOEE) indices.
These indices are calculated through an analytical (recursive) method and are then compared with values recommended by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). Weekly indices are computed to analyze the load curtailment options that may occur in some periods.
Forecasted values, including load and generation capacity considering maintenance schedules, additions of new generating units and permanently shut down units in accordance with the long-term expanding-system plan have been considered. The load forecast uncertainty is also included.
This is original work.
