This paper aims to investigate the foreclosure discount for the German residential market in the years from 2008 to 2011.
The determinants of the foreclosure discount are estimated in a hedonic price model. The analysis is based on a unique data set compiled from three different data sources with 135,000 foreclosed properties.
The findings reveal that residential units in foreclosures are sold at a discount of 19 per cent compared to residential units with similar characteristics that are not in foreclosure. Second, a regional pattern can be observed, with discounts being negatively correlated to unemployment risk and liquidity. Third, the model with interaction terms shows that foreclosure discounts are linked to specific property characteristics. Fourth, these object-related risks are typically smaller than regional risks or locational risks.
Given the highly fragmented system of Gutachterausschüsse in Germany, who are responsible for collecting transaction data, we were not able to directly analyze transaction data, but only a proxy for this price information.
The results can be important for financial institutions that are trying to assess the risk of lending for a specific object in a specific location. So far, banks primarily try to assess the default risk of private lenders by analyzing the debtor’s financial position and the quality of the property. The analysis provides insights into which characteristics of a property might imply additional risk, and in which region these risks are biggest.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the foreclosure discount for the German housing market.
