Welcome to the fifth issue in the fifteenth volume of the International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. This issue contains 19 papers which are truly international and examine housing market problems to increase our knowledge about these developed and developing countries. One of the strengths of this journal is the diverse range of countries, markets and research methodologies adopted to collectively analyse international housing markets. The first paper is founded on the commonly used approach when predicting the price of residential property being the hedonic price model and its spatial extensions. With the hedonic approach the real estate price is decomposed into internal characteristics of an apartment, house characteristics and external characteristics. To account for the unobserved quality of the surrounding environment, the pricing model includes factors relating to spatial price correlation where the distance is usually measured as the distance in geographic space. This paper examines the prices of similar marketed objects which can be selected both by geographic proximity and by similar observed characteristics. The methodology is based on an ensemble clustering approach to measure the proximity of objects and test that the proximity of objects as well as spatial correlation explains the significant variation in prices in Russia. The findings confirm the predictive ability of the model when including both the distance measured in geographical space and the property characteristics. The second paper investigates the design-based factors that govern a building’s physical properties and human-building interactions. The underlying aim is to gain an improved understanding into the influence of design-related factors on the time on market (TOM) of listed (for sale) houses. Another objective is to examine the effect of design features on the desirability of a given house. The methodology uses a Cox proportional-hazards regression model to identify building features that influence prospective purchaser’s decision-making process. The data set for the analysis includes listed house records in Edmonton, Canada from January 2009 to August 2019. The findings confirm the statistical insignificance of price on TOM in comparison to other design features, such as construction method, mechanical systems used and also the cladding materials.
The third paper analyses the economic importance of the housing sector as measured by its contribution to GDP which to-date has not been fully acknowledged. It was argued that in response to the joint economic and health crises caused by the COIVD-19 pandemic there is an opportunity for emerging market countries to develop and implement inclusive housing strategies that stimulate the economy and also improve community health outcomes. However, housing does not appear to feature prominently in the recovery plans of many emerging market countries. The size of the housing sector and its impact in terms of employment and community resilience highlight the potential of inclusive housing investments to serve both as short-term economic stimulus and also increase long-term community resilience. The methodology uses national account data and informal housing estimates for 11 emerging market economies to estimate the contribution of housing investments and housing services to the GDP of these countries. The findings confirmed the combined contribution of housing investments and housing services represented between 6.9% and 18.5% of GDP, averaging 13.1% in countries with information about both. This aligns the housing sector roughly broadly with other key sectors such as manufacturing. The fourth paper combines research into housing market area, submarket and household migration into a single study based on a systems approach. It is envisaged this systems approach provides an improved understanding of the structure and dynamic of a housing market and also identifies housing problems for a large metropolitan area in Greater Manchester, UK. The methodology uses a GIS-based approach with simple quantitative techniques including spatial analysis, location analysis and house price clustering. The migration data was sourced from the 2001 UK Census with house price data drawn from the 2011 Land Registry at the ward level and also the output areas level. The findings confirm different submarkets and housing market areas produce varying patterns of spatial migration and connections with other areas. Based on a systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination the outcomes also identified specific problematic patterns for a large metropolitan area.
The fifth paper identifies and investigates influencing factors and their impact levels on commercial housing prices in Vietnam. Another objective is to suggest strategies for improving policies related to commercial housing prices to develop the commercial housing market. The methodology uses a multivariate regression model to test and assess the impact of the hypothetical factors on commercial housing prices. The study involves 385 real estate professionals who identified factors that may impact housing prices and 110 real estate professionals to advise how much each factor affects housing prices. The findings confirmed there are 7 groups with 24 factors affecting the level of housing prices. Most importantly the neighbouring factor group produced the greatest impact level (18.54%) where the housing service group produced the lowest impact level (11.48%). The outcomes identified strategies for improving policies related to housing prices including land policy, housing policy, financial and credit policy which will assist to develop the commercial housing market. The sixth paper examines the impact of tourism activities on house prices in Turkey from January 2010 to March 2020. Although previous research analysed the link between house prices and macroeconomic variables, there is a gap in knowledge about the link between tourism and house prices. The methodology used newly developed cointegration and causality tests based on Fourier approximation because this approach considers smooth structural breaks and do not need to recognise a priori date number and/or form of breaks. The findings showed that international tourism activities have a substantial contribution towards the level of house prices. It was also shown that a rise in industrial production enhances house prices while the mortgage lending rate exhibits a negative influence on house prices. In addition, the results from Fourier causality tests highlighted the unilateral causal linkage from tourism to house prices. This also confirmed the tourism sector has a substantial role in stabilising the rapid rise of house prices and therefore has policy implications.
The seventh paper bridges the gap in knowledge about householders’ housing choices in Jamaica and also provides empirical research to support the inclusion of householders' perspectives when developing effective housing policies and programs. The methodology examined feedback from a survey of 430 householders where the participants were selected from public housing developments. These developments were undertaken with direct government involvement through its housing agencies or joint venture arrangements between government and private developers. The data was analysed using exploratory factor analysis to identify the main factors influencing the householders' housing choice. Although housing affordability has traditionally been the primary focus of housing, the measure of accessibility explained most of the variance in a householders’ choice. Furthermore the research confirmed that location and accessibility, the dwelling and its immediate environment, housing affordability and neighbourhood attributes are the main influencing factors in the householders’ housing choice. The eighth paper identifies the preferences of low-income communities regarding both housing status (i.e. renting or buying) and house provider (i.e. public or private) in Jakarta, Indonesia and surrounding areas. The relatively high numbers of housing backlogs, especially associated with low-income residents in urban areas, is a major concern in this housing market. The methodology adapted the Longley multi-stage choice model to analyse household preferences when deciding where to live in an urban area. Using data collected via a survey of 1,000 households the findings confirmed that households with attributes such as a fixed employment status, larger number of family members, higher literacy in housing policy and accessible house location have a higher probability of deciding to own a house. In addition the education level, knowledge about housing policies as well as eviction are major determinants of a household’s decision to occupy a public house rather than a private house. These findings provide critical input to government development programs when designing housing policy for low-income households.
The ninth paper assesses and compares the symmetric and asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in each state in the USA. Notably this is the first study to examine data at the state level. The methodology uses both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches to assess the asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment on house prices. The findings showed that when a linear symmetric model was estimated, then the short-run effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in 34 states only lasted into the long run in 13 states. The comparable numbers by estimating a nonlinear asymmetric model were 47 and 22, respectively. This increase in the number of states where consumer sentiment affects house prices was attributed to the nonlinear adjustments of consumer sentiment. The tenth paper analyses the effects of GDP, interest rates, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices and taxes on non-performing property loans of all property loan originators consisting of commercial banks and special housing institutions in Malaysia. The methodology uses the auto regressive distribution lag approach and analyses data from 2009 to 2017, being during a unique period of recovering economic environment where non-performing property loans increased for the first time in almost a decade. The findings showed that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were associated with long cause and effects and long-run elasticity with non-performing property loans. In addition, interest rates were shown to implicate non-performing property loans significantly over longer periods followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. These outcomes assist regulators to understand the dynamic implications of important macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so appropriate strategic monetary policies can be implemented.
The eleventh paper examines house price fluctuations in G7 countries. It examined the level of market efficiency between the short term and long term both before and after the global financial crisis. The methodology uses the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyse the house price fluctuations between 1970 and 2019. The findings confirmed the housing market series is multi-fractal. Furthermore, all the markets showed long-term persistence in both short and long term. The USA is identified as the most persistent house market in the short run and Japan in the long run. Moreover, in terms of efficiency, Canada is identified as the most efficient housing market in the long run and the UK in the short run. Notably the findings relating to before and after the financial crisis period are consistent with the full sample result. The twelfth paper from Australia developed and implemented an innovative model to provide a comprehensive reflection of the interaction of house prices at the suburb level. This approach allows for suburbs to be connected due to their geographic proximity but also by non-spatial factors, such as similarities in socioeconomic or demographic characteristics. This approach is applied to modelling home price dynamics from 2007 to 2018. The methodology generalised the widely used SAR model and advocated building a spatial weights matrix that allows for both geographic and socio-economic linkages between suburbs within the HOSAR framework. The benefits of such a model include the ability to yield an improved fit to the data and more accurate spatial spill-over estimates. The findings demonstrated the inclusion of both spatial and non-spatial linkages between suburbs ensured it is possible to provide an improved representation of the data. It also provides new insights into the manner in which spatial shocks are transmitted around the city and how suburban housing markets are clustered.
The thirteenth paper examines a proposal by the government to adopt a reverse mortgage mechanism to complement retirement income in Colombia. The attention is placed on its feasibility by valuing its premia where the methodology is based on the scenario where banks issue put options on an owner's home. To value the option we apply a risk-neutral canonical approach. The findings showed that the premia values do not appear too high, however if future interest rates increase above the model’s simulations or alternatively home appreciation is below its historical behaviour then the premia could sharply increase and affect the system’s viability. Limiting the loan-to-home-value ratio or fixed-term annuities are identified as feasible alternatives to addressing premium increases. The fourteenth paper examines the motivations of tenants towards co-living spaces in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The identification of factors that influence such preferences is critical for both housing developers and co-living service providers in order to place close attention on improving tenants' living experiences. The methodology examined tenants’ behaviours were using a mixed-methods approach that included a survey and an in-depth interview. A total of 175 respondents were interviewed using purposive sampling where the findings showed that user ratings of preference for physical and leasing attributes of co-living spaces are significant in terms of co-living motivations. The findings also revealed that tenants prefer twin-sharing and master bedrooms when selecting their co-living space.
The objective of the fifteenth paper is to identify and examine the primary factors influencing the level of apartment prices in Prishtina, Kosovo. The identification of these factors will assist stakeholders including real estate developers and investors to make better decisions relating to apartment investments. The research methodology analyses 1,468 real estate transaction contracts of apartment buildings during the period 2018–2020 using a probability random sampling approach. The research methodology uses multiple regression analysis to identify whether the research model is significant in predicting apartment prices and identify the main influencing factors. The findings confirmed that location, size, floor, access to road and building quality affect apartment prices, although surprisingly the access to green spaces and availability of parking spaces have no statistically significant effect on apartment prices. The sixteenth paper investigates the boundedly rational behaviours that affect housing choices between homebuyers and real estate investors. Five bounded behaviours play roles in explaining the decision-making behaviour of homebuyers and investors when they buy or sell a property. These behaviours are anchoring, endowment effect, loss aversion, herding and overconfidence which all have implications for the decision-making process. The methodology is based on cross-sectional questionnaires from 587 respondents where 246 of these respondents are real estate investors. Factor analysis and reliability tests were used to identify the latent construct of bounded rational housing and investment choice behaviour. The findings identified the factors affecting housing choice decisions for both homebuyers and investors, where five factors accounted for the decision-making process of these two cohorts. There are three factors found in homebuyers and investors’ housing choices being endowment effect, herding and loss aversion. The other two factors identified in investors’ housing investment decisions are anchoring and overconfidence.
The seventeenth paper examined the potential flow of non-mortgage household loans in China since January 2020. These included business loans and short-term consumption loans to the residential real estate market which has also attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities. The methodology used a cointegration analysis based on a monthly data set between July 2011 and December 2019. The findings showed that household non-mortgage loans play a significant role and affect residential real estate prices in China. Although other studies examined the Chinese real estate market and relevant linkages with the financial system and the economy, this study exclusively focuses on the role of non-mortgage loans in relation to real estate prices. The eighteenth paper examined the perception of valuers towards the contribution of green features in the residential property valuation process. The concept of green housing was designed to reduce the negative impacts to environment and the human population, however the cost of green housing is higher than conventional housing and reflected in the selling price which is further enhanced by the increasing demand for green building in the housing market. This scenario could pose a challenge to the valuers when they carry out valuation on housing with green features since there is a lack of information to guide valuers. The methodology used a quantitative method and included a comprehensive review of international green rating tools to identify the relative green features in a residential building. Overall there were 147 licensed valuers who provided data where there were 14 green features identified and then grouped into four main categories. The findings confirmed that 14 green features contributed to the residential property valuation with the approximate range of adjustment from 2.0% to 6.5%.
The nineteenth paper investigates the relationship between the status of housing in Tabriz, Iran and the current status of the economy. The methodology used interaction-structural analysis via MICMAC software to analyse the derived data. To collect the data from statistical yearbooks, the censuses of different periods and the documentary-environmental scanning methods are used. The findings showed that between 1976 and 2016 the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing have improved. Based on the environmental scanning method there were 61 factors in five identified areas that have the greatest impact on the future of housing in the Tabriz metropolis. Finally, after examining the amount obtained from aforementioned factors and the influence of indicators on each other and the situation of housing in the future, 11 key factors that have the most impact on the future of housing were identified. These factors are economic growth, inflation, household income and savings, land and housing prices, sanctions, exchange rate changes, bank facilities, unemployment rates, political changes, purchasing power and management style. Among these factors, economic factors played the most important role followed by political-managerial factors.
Each of these papers is unique, and the authors are congratulated for their acceptance for publication. Authors with prospective papers are welcome to engage with the editor prior to submission to ensure their paper is in an acceptable format for publication. This includes ensuring the submitted paper conforms to the author guidelines for the journal which can reduce the time the paper spends in the review process. Please contact the editor directly if I can be of assistance prior to submission and/or discuss the procedure for admission into the review process. If you are interested in submitting a research paper or reviewing potential publications then please contact the editor direct at ijhma@ijhma.com.
