The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the continuing decline of the social rented sector in England implies increased residualisation of the sector, to estimate who is likely to be living in social housing in the future, and to explore the policy implications in terms of the future role of social housing.
The paper addresses these aims by analysing secondary data on the characteristics of current tenants and changes in these as the sector has become smaller. It applies the results of this analysis to demographic projections to determine the likely future profile of social housing tenants and to assess the implications of this for the future management of the sector.
Analysis results suggest that the sector will house three main groups of households in the future: those for whom it provides a secure home for life; those for whom it is a temporary tenure; and a smaller group who enter for the first time in old age.
The main limitation of this approach is that it assumes that the future will be like the past, whereas changes in policy and economic circumstances could produce a different outcome. However, recent trends reflect the outcomes of economic variables and policy changes take time to have an impact, therefore the analysis has practical applications in the short term.
The method, findings and policy implications in this paper all provide value for policy makers, as well as contributing to the wider debate about the role of social rented housing.
