This study aims to explore the macroeconomic and demographic factors that influence housing price dynamics in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations. In these emerging economies, stakeholders must understand the macroeconomic and financial factors driving housing markets.
This study includes a balanced panel data set of five BRICS countries spanning 11 years (2014–2024). It uses static panel data econometrics to evaluate the determinants of Housing Price Index (HPI) as specific explanatory variables. These include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, inflation rates, unemployment rates and population changes. Diagnostic tests for endogeneity and serial autocorrelation were conducted to ensure reliability.
GDP per capita has an insignificant effect on housing prices across BRICS countries, even after controlling for country-specific factors and endogeneity. Inflation exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on housing prices. It supports the view that housing serves as a hedge against inflation in emerging markets. Unemployment shows a negative and statistically insignificant relationship with housing prices. It suggests that labour market conditions may influence housing demand indirectly rather than through immediate price adjustments. Population growth is also found to be insignificant which means that demographic effects operate gradually and are often mediated by structural transformation and urbanization.
The study offers new insights into housing price determinants across the BRICS economies. It reviews the housing price literature, conducts a unified panel analysis, and compares housing price determinants across the BRICS. Inflation is the most significant macroeconomic driver during the recovery period following the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has strong implications for economic policy, macroeconomic management and investment strategies in emerging markets.
