Identifying future trends in information technology

Few information technology trends have received more attention from the industry than electronic (e‐) commerce – and considering the industry’s predisposition to hyperbole, that is saying a lot. This paper discusses the diffusion of e‐commerce in three wave‐migration phases from current computer communications. From an ontological perspective at the meta level, this paper explains why e‐commerce may have a greater impact on exchanging information and optimizing existing business processes than on generating funds flow. In evaluating the nature of e‐commerce applications, it is proposed that e‐commerce will replace the traditional inventory‐based model with an information‐based model and the basis of competition will shift from companies with strong distribution systems to those with strong information systems. This might help explain the predictions of triple‐digit e‐commerce market growth and stock valuations of Internet companies that defy fundamentals.