ISSUES AND APPROACHES TO APPRAISING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE OFFICE: A CONSEOUENTIALIST PERSPECTIVE

Offices have always been complex social systems. With the growth of office automation they will have to be recognized as socio‐technical systems. The problems of prediction of consequences of change — in particular, technological change — in such systems are examined in some length and the limitations of causal analysis noted. A distinction between causal and hermeneutic modes of prediction is drawn. Hermeneutic modes of prediction are advocated as necessary in addition to predictions based on causal models in order to overcome the shortcomings of the latter. The results of a hermeneutic predictive exercise are reported which shed some light on the possible impact of future technological change in the office.