A TWO‐FACTOR MODEL OF THE EFFECTS OF OFFICE AUTOMATION ON EMPLOYMENT Available to Purchase

We distinguish two factors through which new information technologies will affect office employment. On one hand, office automation will enhance productivity, meaning a given amount of work can be accomplished with less labor. On the other, office workload is apt to increase in response to enhanced information handling capabilities, implying demand for additional workers. The balancing of these two factors dictates office employment. An interactive Delphi forecast based on this two‐factor model predicts modest declines in office work required — a frightening prospect for a society also anticipating continuing declines in manufacturing and agricultural work requirements.