Strategic investment decision‐making: Managerial judgement on project risk and return

Until recently little attention has been given in Accounting and Finance literature to the problem of linking the results of financial evaluation techniques such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Shareholder Value Analysis (SVA) to managers’ cognitive evaluation of strategic factors and the risk profile of projects. Various authors have called for research in this area, but very little has so far been published. This paper reports on a field‐based study carried out in the logistics industry. It builds on earlier research, which elicited constructs that managers use to assess project risk using a repertory grid technique. It provides an insight into how a project risk analysis process can be linked with project returns in strategic investment appraisal (SIA) in a divisionalised organisation. An action research approach was taken to develop a decision matrix to link the risk assessment results to expected project returns as an aid to management in strategic investment decision‐making. It is now embedded in the investment appraisal procedures across the European group of companies that participated in the research. It is suggested that the framework adopted in this experimental study is transferable to other organisational contexts.