The aim is to demonstrate the necessity of a scenario approach to decision making where non‐experts are forced to choose between expert opinions about which they cannot possibly form their own expert opinion.
This is an opinion column.
The 2012 presidential election is almost sure to result in more of an austerity approach to the economy – and the level of that austerity may actually be greater under a re‐elected Obama than under a new President Romney.
Decision makers and strategists should be prepared for more of an austerity approach to economic policy, no matter who is elected in November.
Few people are thinking through the actual implications of this election. A scenario analysis makes it fairly clear that the range of plausible policy outcomes is far narrower than is commonly believed.
The article gives a possibly unique outlook on the 2012 presidential election.
