Managing changing risks to infrastructure systems

Civil engineering infrastructure systems are vulnerable to the effects of natural hazards such as flooding, landslides, windstorm and coastal erosion. Risk analysis provides a rational approach to analysing the threat these phenomena pose and identifying efficient options for system management. This paper presents a general formulation of the risk-analysis problem for an engineering system subject to environmental loads. However, most of the variables that determine system behaviour may be subject to long-term change, for example due to climate change or structural deterioration. The uncertainties in appraisal of infrastructure over extended timescales can be considerable, so a framework is presented for systematic analysis of uncertainties and robust decision making.