Early warning of organisational crises: A research project from the international air express industry

International air express carriers, frequently referred to as international courier companies, operate integrated global networks consisting of aircraft, hubs, vehicles, data systems and tens of thousands of employees spread across all continents. The inherently global nature of such systems – the leading firm operates in 228 countries – makes them sensitive to a foray of risks and threats. This paper, which was presented at the Seventh International Public Relations Research Symposium (Lake Bled, Slovenia, 7th‐8th July, 2000), reports on an ongoing crisis management research project that started in 1997 and which investigates early markers of crises experienced by DHL Worldwide Express. After a concise literature overview, which maps the relationship between organisational crises and early warning signals, two research outputs are discussed. First, the production of a crisis register is described. Computer‐aided content analysis of an internal service bulletin identified 103 service crises which the company managed in 68 countries during a 15‐month period. Secondly, detailed case investigation generated a model of crisis gestation. Prior to conflagration, exacerbating conditions and precipitating events interact to produce a number of dynamic effects. Five types of gestation‐advancing effects are illustrated. The paper concludes by reflecting on some of the consequences globally dispersed operations can have on corporate crisis management processes.