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In 1974, citations to the literature of an earlier year, say 1966, will be to a relatively small number of ‘enduring’ articles, the remainder having been forgotten. The currently cited literature of a particular growing subject will consist of the ‘enduring’ literature of earlier years, and the recent literature some of which will endure and some of which will ‘die’. There willl be more citations to recent literature because there is more of it. A trend towards multiple authorship may be reducing the growth rate of published articles.

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