ON THE GROWTH OF BIBLIOGRAPHIES WITH TIME: AN EXERCISE IN BIBLIOMETRIC PREDICTION

Recent work has shown that potentially useful predictions of the circulation of library materials can be made which do not require very restrictive assumptions about underlying probability distributions. In the same spirit, we here consider one of the classic problems of bibliometrics, viz. predicting the number of ‘new’ journals carrying ‘relevant’ articles in the future, using both established parametric approaches and the newer, empirical methods.