A cynic might flick through the graphs and charts in this book and say ‘first they say it’s all about gas, and then they say there will be a major nuclear build programme, and then they juggle CCS and biomass – nobody knows what’s going to happen’. To say that would be to miss the point of the book and of the 4 years of research that went into it.
The book sets out to explore the various ways in which the UK can set about achieving energy security while drastically reducing carbon emissions, taking account of the uncertainties surrounding future technology development, societal reactions, government commitment and international influences. It does this by developing a number of scenarios – not predictions or forecasts – which are internally consistent and which between them span the broad range of possibilities. For each scenario they then calculate an optimal trajectory from here to 2050. By looking across the set of scenarios it is then possible for policy-makers to extract broad learning about how policy impacts on practice. This is also helpful for anyone who is trying to influence policy-makers. As I write this review I read that one report is urging Britain to abolish its renewable energy targets and focus on less costly ways of cutting carbon dioxide emissions, while the European Union is making moves to extend mandatory renewable energy targets from 2020 to 2030. For anyone perplexed by seemingly contradictory claims, I would recommend this book.
There is an interesting choice of scenarios. The Reference scenario is based on policies that were firm and funded at the time of the 2007 Energy White Paper with no subsequent additions. The Low Carbon scenario assumes the introduction of a range of policies leading to an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. The Resilient scenario assumes additional investment in infrastructure, demand reduction measures and supply diversity to make the energy system more resilient to external shocks. It also limits reliance on any one source to 40%. There are variants and combinations of these as well.
At the heart of the approach is the use of a variant on a MARKAL model (MARKet ALlocation) developed by the International Energy Agency which calculates the optimal pathway to the stated goal subject to all imposed constraints, showing how the energy supply mix changes over time. They feed in a range of future cost projections for the various supply technologies of interest, drawing upon international expertise. There are references to sources of further detail on the cost, efficiency and availability assumptions made regarding coal, gas, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power plants as well as hydrogen and fuel cells, wind, solar PV, marine and biomass technologies. The model also calculates the marginal cost of carbon dioxide reduction as it changes over time. The main criticism of this approach (as the authors acknowledge) is that in the real world people have to make their investment decisions with very imperfect knowledge of the future.
The early chapters include some fascinating information on how we got to where we are today with respect to the energy industry as a whole in the UK. When you see total UK natural gas demand increasing eight-fold since 1970 and the virtual disappearance of domestic coal fires over that period while industrial final energy demand halved, it puts some of the calculated scenario trajectories for the next 40 years into context. They also provide a succinct summary of how UK energy policy has developed over the past 10 years or so, pointing out some key limitations with respect to future challenges.
The trajectories calculated for the various scenarios are useful for their insight into the factors that would favour early emphasis on offshore wind relative to nuclear, or electric vehicles relative to biofuels, or decarbonising the electricity supply relative to the heat supply. They also clarify what would need to change in order for the answers to be different or for the relative time windows for deployment of various technologies to change. Interestingly, none of these trajectories to 2050 shows the UK hitting its mandated target of 15% renewables by 2020. Chapter 7 includes an interesting tabulation of priorities for accelerated research and development.
Having explored the main scenarios, Chapter 8 looks at the option of developing a more distributed energy system with more reliance on residential micro-generation. This chapter is a useful starting point for anyone seeking an overview of available technologies and their costs and the general policy and support environment for micro-generation.
Chapter 9 explores some interesting variants on the Low Carbon and Reference scenarios in which people voluntarily make changes to the way they travel and use energy in the home in order to have a lower-carbon lifestyle. It is interesting to see a scenario developing in which overheating of buildings and conspicuous consumption of energy become as socially unacceptable as smoking.
Chapter 10 looks at three more constrained (and therefore more costly) versions of the Low Carbon scenario based on heightened public perceptions of risk to the landscape, the environment and health. These translate into varying constraints on onshore wind, nearshore wind, CCS plant siting, UK biomass growth, biomass imports and use of hydrogen.
Overall, it is a very thought-provoking book. It can be heavy going in places, but that it hardly surprising when it uses two dozen contributors from a multiplicity of backgrounds to draw together the learning from a major research programme. One minor criticism would be that a few of the charts are difficult to follow in grey-scale, but I guess a full-colour edition might put it beyond the budget of many of the people who ought to read it. I could also point out that it is out of date in a few places – but that is really just a reflection of the pace of change in the energy industry today.
