Natural gas in hydrogen production: a cost study

A comprehensive economic performance evaluation framework for palladium (Pd)-based industrial-scale catalytic membrane reactor (CMR) modules integrated into hydrogen (H₂) production systems (HP-CMR) through methane steam reforming has been developed. The HP-CMR technology option offers a promising pathway towards hydrogen production with enhanced environmental performance in a carbon dioxide-constrained world. Within the above context, this paper develops comprehensive baseline models for total capital investment (TCI) and total product cost (TPC) to evaluate the economic performance of CMRs. Various sources of uncertainty (raw material market prices, labour costs, membrane lifetime and maintenance costs, financing costs, etc.) are recognised and their effect on TCI and TPC is explicitly taken into account using Monte Carlo techniques. As a result, insightful distribution profiles of TCI and TPC are derived rather than single-point value estimates and more realistic distributions of CMR economic performance outcomes are generated. Furthermore, tornado diagrams are developed, establishing the predominant effect of palladium unit price, membrane lifetime and financing interest costs on TCI and TPC.