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One of the most convenient ways to communicate the risk of groundwater contamination in the vicinity of a landfill is through the use of probability of failure or reliability of the containment system of the landfill. The reliability of the engineered containment system influences the risk of groundwater contamination. In this paper, an approach to understanding the effectiveness of the liner system using the response surface method, taking into consideration the variability of five parameters (initial chloride concentration, clay diffusion coefficient, soil porosity, aquifer porosity and base outflow velocity) is presented. Comparative analysis was performed with respect to the relationship of the reliability index and the coefficient of variation of each variable in order to understand their influence on the reliability of the liner system. The implications of the study are presented here. It may be noted that the developed response surface equations are only valid for the conditions considered in this analysis.

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