Climate change is projected to have a significant impact upon buildings, infrastructure and utilities. Therefore, effective sustainable development must accommodate these impacts as well as attempting to reduce the causes of further climate change. The UK climate impacts programme (UKCIP) is ideally placed to assist in this process, UKCIP's aims being to improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change among stakeholders and to help stakeholders to be better equipped to undertake adaptation to climate change. UKCIP provides guidance and resources, including making available climate information (see below) that supports stakeholder efforts to assess vulnerabilities, impacts, risks and adaptation options.
This issue of Engineering Sustainability is a special issue devoted to the outcomes of the UK biological and engineering impacts of climate change on slopes (Bionics) programme, one of the core projects of a government-funded initiative entitled Building knowledge for a changing climate (BKCC). The initiative was a collaboration between the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and UKCIP, and concerns research into the impacts of climate change on the built environment, transport and utilities. The suite of integrated research projects covered areas ranging from risk management to the impact of climate change on energy supplies, land use and historic buildings, their stated aims and objectives being listed below. Since this is an editorial, as opposed to a review article, it is considered most important to list what each consortium is, or rather was, about and allow readers to follow up on the specific outcomes. The UKCIP's role was to support the suite of projects including by making available scenarios that show how the climate might change and coordinating research on dealing with these future alternative climate predictions. Although the work under BKCC is now complete, the initiative was continued via Sustaining knowledge for a changing climate (SKCC) and now Adaptation and resilience to a changing climate (ARCC) within the context of the ‘living with environment change’ programme.
SKCC was likewise funded by EPSRC and supported by UKCIP, and sought to preserve and extend the community of end users and researchers assembled through BKCC. In addition, SKCC has been instrumental in synthesising and disseminating the results from BKCC with the aim of maximising their impact on the end user and research community. This has been done via publication of the BKCC results, the holding of a workshop during which the results were presented and discussed, and offering visits to sites where adaptation solutions have been undertaken. Such activity complements well the formal publication of research results provided by this themed issue of Engineering Sustainability as these research programmes seek to make the impact necessary if we are to bring about a change in the way we operate. ARCC is the current focus of the EPSRC– UKCIP collaboration within the built environment, including related infrastructure, water and transport systems (see www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk). Although thinking is advancing and practices are changing, it is the core underpinning research of the BKCC initiative that provided the knowledge base. The aims of the various consortia in turn provide the focus for the rest of this editorial, which concludes with an introduction to the Bionics consortium and the papers published in this special issue.
1. BIONICS CONSORTIA
1.1. Adaptation strategies for climate change in the urban environment (Asccue)
Asccue aimed to understand the consequences of climate change on towns and cities, and to develop adaptation strategies through planning and urban design. The research team used two case studies to investigate climate impacts on the built environment, human comfort and urban green space at the neighbourhood level. To achieve this goal the team developed methods for vulnerability assessment, exploring socio-economic impacts, and planned and designed workshops to develop and test adaptation options. The project sought to deliver the following outcomes.
City-wide assessment of climate-related risks to, and constraints on, development in two contrasting urban areas (Lewes and Manchester).
Reports on scope for climate adaptation through strategic planning and urban design (for example, planting more trees in urban spaces) and developing adaptation strategies for planners and decision makers.
Examination of interaction between adaptive strategies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
1.2. Adaptable urban drainage—addressing change in intensity, occurrence and uncertainty of stormwater (Audacious)
The Audacious project (see http://www.eng.brad.ac.uk/audacious) aimed to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on property and local drainage systems and the relationship to downstream main drainage. The project's researchers focussed on flooding that is caused by a lack of capacity in, or hindrance of, the urban drainage system, and on adapting existing systems. In so doing they have had to tackle cross-cutting issues, including planning and socio-economic implications. The project, which has been reported on in the pages of Engineering Sustainability, sought to deliver the following outcomes.
Tools for drainage managers and operators to use that take account of climate change and other changing land-use factors.
Enhanced urban drainage models.
Guidance on procedures to evaluate and manage performance of local drainage systems.
Whole-life cost evaluations.
Case study applications in Glasgow and Bradford.
More sustainable urban drainage.
1.3. Built environment: economic and social information for examining the effects of climate change (Beseech)
This research project aimed to develop ways of assessing the capacity and willingness of individual people and organisations in the built environment to adapt to climate change. The researchers identified attributes and behaviours of individuals and organisations relevant to the built environment to characterise capacity and willingness. They further developed qualitative storylines for the UKCIP socio-economic scenarios in terms of the key determinants of adaptive capacity, and refining and extending quantitative indicators (for example, population) associated with each scenario. Finally, the project team identified socio-economic linkages for other BKCC projects, and thus provided a cross-initiative supporting activity. The project, details of which can be found by following recent research into environmental matters at http://www.psi.org.uk, sought to deliver the following.
Assessment of how key determinants of adaptive capacity evolve under each UKCIP socio-economic scenario, where key determinants of adaptive capacity are defined as economic resources, technology, information and skills, (social) infrastructure, (social) institutions, and equity.
A consistent framework within which specific socioeconomic storylines can be developed.
Projections for 12 UK regions for key socio-economic parameters: population, household numbers and gross value added (by sector).
A common template for integrating findings on adaptive capacity across other BKCC projects.
1.4. Built environment: weather scenarios for investigation of impacts and extremes (Betwixt)
The Betwixt project (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/betwixt) aimed to provide detailed state-of-art UK climate scenarios and support their use by other BKCC projects, and is thus is another cross-initiative supporting activity. The researchers modified and improved weather generators and information on storm track and wind changes, and developed and applied the generalised Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for constructing specialised rainfall scenarios. The project team also modelled the impacts of urban land surfaces and heat sources on urban climate. The project sought to deliver the following.
Daily/hourly future time series of eight variables related to temperature, rainfall, moisture, sunshine and wind for up to ten case study locations.
The RainClim software package to generate future hourly and 5-minute rainfall for any UK location.
A report describing the analysis of changes to urban and rural temperatures and humidity.
Technical briefing notes.
1.5. Climate change risk assessment: new impact and uncertainty methods (Cranium)
Cranium aimed to develop new methods for analysing uncertainty and making robust risk-based decisions for infrastructure design and management in the face of climate change. The research team analysed uncertainty in UK regional climate scenarios for built environment, transport and utilities, simulating system response to uncertain climate scenarios, addressing decision-making under severe uncertainty and matching methods for decision-making to the context of various climate-related decisions. The project sought to deliver these results.
New uncertainty analyses of climate scenarios with particular reference to climate variables relevant to the built environment, transport and utilities.
New practical methods for analysing how systems respond to uncertain climate variables.
Demonstrations of new techniques for robust risk-based decision-making for railway, hydro-electric, flood defence and other infrastructure systems.
1.6. Engineering historic futures: adaptation of historic environments to moisture-related climate change
The Engineering historic futures project (http://www.ucl.ac.uk/sustainableheritage/historic_futures.htm) aimed to address adaptation of historic environments to moisture-related climate change by looking at what happens when water penetrates the fabric of historic buildings and how buildings can be best dried. The research team carried out field monitoring of historic buildings that had suffered water damage and made laboratory measurements of fabric moisture penetration on brick and stone test walls. They also developed a computer-based drying model and made a socio-economic evaluation of different adaptation strategies. The project sought to deliver the following.
A report of detailed investigations of moisture profiles through different fabric structures.
A combined building and fabric transient heat conduction and moisture movement model.
Guidance on drying historic buildings for heritage professionals and the wider public.
1.7. Climate change impacts assessment on the electricity supply industry and utilities (Genesis)
Genesis aimed to assess the impact of the UKCIP climate change scenarios on the energy consumption of the electricity supply industry. The research team identified key climate impacts for the electricity supply industry, and applied models to assess changing patterns in energy use due to climate change and socio-economic factors. They also assessed climate impacts on wind power generation and used a model to describe how stakeholder performance demands from the electricity supply industry can be mapped through to technical performance requirements. The project sought to deliver the following results.
A method for a utility, such as the electricity supply industry, to manage risk within its complex, inter-related functions under climate change.
Information about the impact of changing consumer demand patterns on the electricity supply industry, driven by both climate and socio-economic change.
Information about climate impacts for wind power generation.
1.8. Impact of climate change on UK air transport
This project aimed to identify the possible impacts of climate change for UK aviation and the feedback mechanisms involved. The research problem was tackled through model simulations and data analysis, exploring the climate impacts associated with increased use of existing airport infrastructure (including measures to address congestion), increased use of regional airports, and changes in the fleet of aircrafts operating in and over the UK. The project sought to deliver the below.
Understanding of sensitivity of UK air traffic system to wind changes.
Information on changes in contrail formation caused by temperature and humidity changes.
Identification of existing or proposed airports or routes particularly vulnerable to climate change and those likely to have increased impact on climate as a result of changing local atmospheric conditions.
Identification of sensitivities of mechanisms through which aviation contributes to climate change.
1.9. Biological and engineering impacts of climate change on slopes (Bionics)
Treating Bionics in the same manner as the previously described projects, it aimed to improve our understanding of climate change impacts on slope stability, for example in railway and road embankments, by building and monitoring a full-scale climate-controlled embankment. The research team were thereby able to represent historic and modern embankment types through variable compaction, create a controlled climate, and plant and monitor representative vegetation subjected to different climates. They developed and ran validated computer models under present and future climates, and developed ways to identify parts of the UK infrastructure that require further investigation through interaction with Cranium. The project sought to deliver these outcomes.
A fully instrumented embankment with climate control system.
A database of embankment performance—including the effects of planting, rainfall, heating and compaction levels on embankment condition.
Model simulations of each embankment test plot.
Identification of the effects of climate on vegetation and relationship with soil properties and on vegetation invasion and ecosystem function.
Unlike the previous projects, the methodologies and outcomes are described in detail hereafter. The first paper (Kilsby et al.1) introduces the topic of climate-change impacts on the long-term performance of slopes and sets the context for the numerous variables that must be considered. In this way it is demonstrated how the outputs from Betwixt have been used by Bionics. The remarkable embankment that has been constructed as part of the project is described by Hughes et al.2 and perhaps demonstrates the need for full-scale testing by highlighting the factors that might be missed by numerical or smaller-scale idealised laboratory modelling. Nevertheless the only sensible approach to the extension of such data is to develop numerical models (as described by Rouaina et al.3) and, where it can be justified, to adopt centrifuge testing (Hudacsek et al.4). The first of the above papers sits nicely in this journal, whereas the following three might just as relevantly sit in an issue of the Geotechnical Engineering part of the ICE Proceedings devoted to matters of sustainability, and herein lies a constant dilemma for the ICE Proceedings, and Engineering Sustainability more specifically. One argument put forward in previous editorials, and one that perhaps constantly needs rehearsing, is that in an ideal world there should be no place for a journal dedicated to engineering sustainability since the topic should be embedded in engineering practice as a matter of course. The current state of practice, however, is far from this position, and there thus remains a need for this journal to focus minds specifically on sustainability issues as well as both alerts in other parts of the Proceedings, that is in the application disciplines, to relevant papers in this journal and alerts in this journal to papers of relevance elsewhere in the ICE Proceedings, which in fact is the service provided by Fullalove5 under just this title.
The reason for this discourse is that the final two papers can be argued to sit best once again in Engineering Sustainability. They tackle the question of what constitutes a sustainable slope from several different perspectives. Glendinning et al.6 link the natural and built environments by addressing the long appreciated, but until recently neither fully nor rigorously explored, topic of the use of vegetation to bring about improvements in stability of slopes. This topic addresses all three pillars of sustainability by focussing on two directly and the third by implication and impact, an accusation that might be levelled at the civil engineering profession as a whole. The final paper by Glendinning et al.7 returns to the oft-stated aim of this journal in delivering the ‘how to’ of sustainability; in this case asset management strategies. Taken as a whole, this special issue attempts to tell a story of how best to go about tackling one of the foremost problems facing the civil engineering profession, climate change, by a logical and integrated programme of research on one aspect of the transport infrastructure. The wider BKCC, and subsequently SKCC and ARCC, activity expands this thinking to other important facets of engineering for society. We hope that it provides food for thought in so doing.
