Numerical modelling of climate effects on slope stability Available to Purchase

This paper reviews a method of accurately predicting changes in pore water pressure within a slope as a response to a given climate. Observations are made on the importance of correctly determining the hydraulic parameters and correctly assessing local climate conditions. The mechanical response of the slope to pore water pressure changes is modelled and it is shown how closely deformation magnitude and rate relates to climate. A diagnostic railway embankment is subjected to a simulated future climate scenario in which rain events are of higher intensity but are less persistent and average temperatures increase significantly. These climate changes are shown to reduce infiltration and increase evaporation, resulting in negative pore water pressures persisting throughout the winter months and providing improved stability.