The threat of drier summers to agriculture and the environment in eastern England

In the established climate, evaporation dominates eastern England’s water regime, taking it near to desiccation in dry summers. Now, hotter drier summers are predicted – even more evaporation, coupled with less rainfall. If true, the reduction in summer water will be very large – far more than all abstractions put together, even by the 2020s. Thereafter, summer droughts will intensify and spread westwards, threatening river flows, agriculture and natural vegetation. In particular, irrigation need will escalate, with no summer water to meet it – a climate change impact that is being underperceived. This paper explores the scale of the issues and the adaptation options. It demonstrates synergy between the interests of agriculture and of water supply and calls for integrated strategic planning, with reservoirs and reuse high on the adaptation agenda.