The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate and the 1920s' Experience with Floating Exchange Rates

In this article the monetary approach to the exchange rate is tested for the franc‐pound, dollar‐pound and franc‐dollar exchange rates over the period February 1921 to August 1925. It is shown that the estimation technique utilised is very important. Some out of sample forecasts from a variety of exchange rate models are also presented; a simple purchasing power parity model out‐performs the alternatives.