On the performance and practicality of nominal GDP targeting in Germany

This paper examines the performance of nominal income targeting as a possible direction for monetary policy. The existing literature consists of historical counterfactual simulations to determine how economic performance might have differed if this policy had been adopted. To provide better assessment of the performance of nominal income targeting in practice, this paper focuses on Germany where this policy is implemented. The results highlight the importance of price stability in the design of German monetary policy. Furthermore, causality test results indicate a causal flow from money to nominal income. However, there is no evidence of a causal flow from nominal income to various definitions of money. These results confirm the Bundesbank’s claim that monetary growth runs ahead of fluctuations in nominal income in Germany. That is, the Bundesbank is able to target nominal income by using a monetary aggregate. These findings challenge the skepticism regarding the use of a monetary aggregate as the intermediate target, which has arisen mainly from the US experience.