Money laundering and income tax evasion: the determination of optimal audits and inspections to detect abnormal prices in international trade

Presents a statistical auditing system which gives a methodology for statistical analysis of international trade prices. Discusses how this can help governments and international lending agencies, or internationally trading firms, determine the optimal level of audits and physical inspections of cargoes in order to detect abnormally priced imports and exports, using a cost ‐ benefit approach. Applies a computer program to analyse transactions in any commodity between the USA and any other country, and describes the data set and methodology for determining upper and lower bound prices, using the inter‐quartile range as the benchmark for determining abnormality. Presents results from earlier studies and gives an example of how the proposed statistical auditing system can be used.