Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios Available to Purchase

In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development areincluded in the model as exogenous parameters taken from theSSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomicpathways(“SSPs”) and the representative concentration pathways (“RCPs”). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, andcarbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate changemitigation and socio-economic development may increase harvestvolumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomassharvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation optionrelative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However,the payments do not have much impact on the profitability ofwoody biomass harvesting for material products and traditionalbioenergy. The reason is that energy crops provide a substitutefor woody biomass use for modern bioenergy while there are lesssubstitutes available for woody biomass use for material productsand traditional bioenergy. Provided that carbon payments can beused as a policy instrument to control impacts of climate changemitigation on harvest volumes and harvested area, an unfavorablefuture socioeconomic development may cause a greater threat tothe world’s forests than climate change mitigation.