The dynamics of climate shocks and forest vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa: the impact of economic performance and climate disasters on forest degradation Available to Purchase

While forest degradation is widely acknowledged as a contributor to climate change, less attention has been given to how climate shocks impact forest ecosystems. Similarly, while deforestation’s effect on food security is well-studied, the role of food insecurity in accelerating forest loss remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of economic performance, climate disasters and socioeconomic factors on forest health in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2020, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) for robustness. Results confirm an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation (EKCd) at the aggregate level: economic growth initially worsens deforestation (−5.76%) before stabilizing, but beyond a threshold, it leads to renewed forest loss (−0.038 per GDP³). However, when economic sectors are disaggregated, no N-shaped EKCd pattern emerges, indicating sector-specific forest impacts. Climate variables play a significant role: a 1°C temperature rise reduces forest cover by 3.8%, while methane emissions from forest fires lower forest health by 0.13% per kiloton of CH₄. Surprisingly, each additional climate-related disaster per year is associated with a 1.1% increase in forest health, possibly due to natural regeneration effects. Socioeconomic pressures also drive deforestation: a one-unit increase in food insecurity reduces forest health by 0.47%, a 1% rise in income inequality lowers it by 0.73%, and a 1% increase in food inflation leads to a 0.03% decline. Policy recommendations include economic diversification into sustainable sectors, strengthening climate adaptation policies (afforestation, land-use planning), addressing food insecurity and income inequality through social programs and enhancing governance to curb illegal logging. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers balancing economic growth, forest conservation and climate resilience in SSA.