The purpose of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of a variety of financial market forces on the ex post real cost of funds to corporations, namely, the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA. The study is couched within an open-economy loanable funds model, and it adopts annual data for the period 1973-2013, so that the results are current while being applicable only for the post-Bretton Woods era. The auto-regressive two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations reveal that the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA was an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yields on six-month Treasury bills, seven-year Treasury notes, high-grade municipal bonds and the Moody’s BAA-rated corporate bonds, while being a decreasing function of the monetary base as a per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP. Finally, additional estimates reveal that the higher the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP, the higher the ex post real interest rate on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds.
After developing an initial open-economy loanable funds model, the empirical dimension of the study involves auto-regressive, two-stage least squares and GMM estimates. The model is then expanded to include the federal budget deficit, and new AR/2SLS and GMM estimates are provided.
The AR/2SLS and GMM (generalized method of moments) estimations reveal that the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA was an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yields on six-month Treasury bills, seven-year Treasury notes, high-grade municipal bonds and the Moody’s BAA-rated corporate bonds, while being a decreasing function of the monetary base as a per cent of GDP and net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP. Finally, additional estimates reveal that the higher the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP, the higher the ex post real interest rate on AAA-rated long -term corporate bonds.
The author is unaware of a study that adopts this particular set of real interest rates along with net capital inflows and the monetary base as a per cent of GDP and net capital inflows. Also, the data run through 2013. There have been only studies of deficits and real interest rates in the past few years.
