Numerical prediction of the IJkDijk trial embankment failure Available to Purchase

The paper analyses the experimental slope failure of a full-scale earthen dyke (levee) in Booneschans (Groningen, the Netherlands). The goals of the experiment were to develop efficient dyke-monitoring systems predicting various modes of failure well in advance of onset and to test the ability of numerical geotechnical models to predict the mode of failure and the time of collapse. Prior to the experiments, a special competition for the best prediction for all three planned tests had been announced. Several commercial corporations and scientific research organisations modelling dykes participated in the competition; the authors of this paper provided the best prediction for the macro-instability experiment, according to the decision of jury. The IJkDijk macro-instability test prediction has become the ultimate validation of the Virtual Dike simulation module, which is a functional part of the UrbanFlood early warning system for flood protection. Regarding sensor recordings, tilt measurements offered the simplest method of detecting the onset of slope failure. The early signs of progressing local instabilities in the dyke were registered by tilt sensors more than 4 d before the global collapse – a time that is sufficient for the dyke maintenance service to take necessary steps to reinforce the slope.