Probabilistic analysis for the reinforced fill over void problem

Analytical and numerical solutions for the problem of geosynthetic-reinforced fills over a void have been the subject of investigation for the last four decades. A common feature of this prior work is that all methods have treated the analytical solutions as deterministic. While the treatment of some input parameters must be taken as deterministic, there are other parameters that have uncertainty. Furthermore, the underlying mechanistic models for load and resistance terms in the limit state equations for the reinforced fill over a void problem can be expected to have different accuracy. This paper revisits the problem of geosynthetic-reinforced fills over voids from a probabilistic point of view for reinforcement tensile strain, tensile strength, and geosynthetic stiffness limit states. Particular attention is paid to the method used to select the isochronous stiffness of the reinforcement and the associated uncertainty in the magnitude of that value. The paper demonstrates how the factor of safety from deterministic past practice can be linked quantitatively to the reliability index used in contemporary probabilistic design. Finally, the paper demonstrates the advantage of using product-specific constant-load creep test results to maximise margins of safety for strength and stiffness limit states in both deterministic and probabilistic frameworks.