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The derivation of a new conceptual model for predicting the peak penetration resistance of circular footings installed vertically into sand overlying soft clay is presented in this paper. Based on visualisation experiments and finite-element analyses, a failure mechanism of a frustum of sand being forced into the underlying clay, with the outer angle reflecting the dilation in the sand, is assumed. The analytical basis of the new conceptual model follows the approach for silo analysis, and takes into account the stress level and dilatant response of the sand. A comprehensive analysis of the performance of the new model, and other existing analytical methods, in retrospectively predicting the peak resistance of a database of 49 geotechnical centrifuge tests is provided. Significant improvements over existing punching shear and load spread models are shown, as a result of incorporating the strength properties of the sand in a consistent manner. The new model has application to the offshore mobile ‘jack-up' industry, where inaccurate predictions of peak capacity in layered soils continue to cause damaging punch-through failures.

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