Reliability analysis of building serviceability problems caused by excavation

Based on previously developed evaluation criteria, a serviceability limit state is established for reliability analysis of building damage caused by excavation. The term damage is defined herein as the violation of serviceability requirements such as exceeding the threshold principal strain in the building. In this paper the model uncertainty or model bias, characterised by applying Bayesian mapping and reliability techniques, and its relationship to prior knowledge of damage potential (probability) are analysed. The concept of apparent model bias factor is introduced, and an iterative procedure is developed to tackle the issue of prior probability in the calibration of apparent model bias factor. Satisfactory results are obtained with the developed iterative procedure for estimating the probability of damage of buildings caused by excavation.