A new approach for assessing geothermal response to climate change in permafrost regions

Infrastructure in cold regions is vulnerable to the potential degradation of permafrost under a warming climate. Meanwhile, the accumulation of meteorological data and the refinement of AOGCMs in recent years have improved the confidence in future global air temperature predictions. A reliable scheme is now desired that converts these climate predictions into future geocryological predictions relevant to geotechnical engineering and risk assessment. This paper describes a multidisciplinary approach that provides a first estimate of transient ground responses to climate change on a regional basis. The scheme integrates locally adjusted AOGCM climate predictions, regional geological assessments, non-linear thermal finite element analysis and digital elevation models derived from remote sensing data. The practical application of the approach is demonstrated through predictions made of the geocryological changes expected between 1940 and 2059 in a Siberian region. The paper presents results from one sampled area where discontinuous permafrost is present beneath rolling hills terrain. It is shown that elevation, vegetation and local geological variations all affect the development of permafrost, with important implications for infrastructure design and operation. A range of useful geocryological maps can be output from the procedure, including temperature at the active layer base, permafrost table depth, and ground temperature at any desired depth. It is shown that the permafrost model's predictions for present-day conditions agree well with existing geocryological maps. An illustrative example of how simple geohazard maps may be prepared from the output is also provided.